Gulf and Atlantic air and sea surface temperature off Atlantic and the Gulf Coast increased significantly

over the last 20 years (over 40 coastal buoy temperature sites analyzed).

(compiled by a former member of Federal Advisory Committee on Global Warming)

The air and sea surface temperature was measured by buoys spread all along the Florida Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Locations in Florida included Sombrero Key, Venice, Cedar Key, Dry Tortugas, Sand Key, Long Key, Molasses Key, Panama City, Pensacola. The air and water temperatures were sampled every hour over this period and can be found at the following web page(1).

(1) Data: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/historical_data.shtml

Twelve more of the National Data Buoy Center buoys off the Atlantic Coast that had hourly data reported since 1988 showed a similar trend of increasing air and ocean surface temperatures, and 10 other Gulf Coast buoy sites from Texas to Florida including Corpus Christi, Sabine, Freeport, and Galveston Texas, Southwest Pass La, S of Mobile, Dauphin Island, Canaveral East, Savanna, Grey’s Reef, Cape Hatteras, South Hatteras, Charleston, Nantucket Bay, Cape May NJ , Delaware Bay, Thomas Pt, Md(Chesapeake Bay), Portland,Me. Buoys 41001, 41002, 41004, 41008, 41009, 42001, 42002, 42019, 42020, 42040, BURL1, DP1A1, 44004, 44007, 44008, 44014,ABAN6,etc.   

The largest increases were for far northern sites, including Alaska and especially the Great Lakes- which have shown very large temperature increases over the last 10 years.

Summary: Sea Surface Temperatures

Since 1977, the calculated buoy site temperature increases for the Atlantic Coast ranged from 0.35 to 1.35 degrees Centigrade, with a median of .70 degrees C. Since 1988 the average increase ranged from .30 to 1.87 degrees C, with a median of 0.80 degrees C.

For the Gulf Coast since 1977, the range was 0.76 to 1.46 degrees C, with a median of 1.19 degrees C. Since 1988, the range of increases was

0.16 to 1.28 with a median of 1.06 degrees C.

The sea surface temperature increases at an Alaska buoy site were 2.65 degrees C since 1977.

For Great Lakes buoy sites, the average increase since 1981 ranged from 1.72 to 3.73 degrees C, with a median of 2.7 degrees C. Since 1988 the average increase ranged from 0.74 to 2.32 degrees C, with a median of 1.8 degrees C.

The measured air temperature differentials for some sites were significantly larger than the sea surface temperature differentials, but were more variable.

1977, 1981, 1988,1996 and 2005 had similar North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns for most of the year and previous year. 1996 followed a high NAO period from 1989 to 1995 in which there had been a significant warming trend in sea surface temperatures. These years were focused on in compiling temperature differentials to minimize differential effects of NAO. The temperature increases do not appear to be explained by NAO or ENSO effects.

Alaska

The average water temperature increased over 1.5 degrees C from the first 4 years of the 30 year data period to the last 4 years of the data period,

and over 0.5 degrees C from the first 8 years of the period to the last 8 years of the period. A linear regression showed an increase of 0.51 degrees C per decade.

Similar increases were found for monitored air temperatures. Some of data at: www.flcv.com/AKdata.html

Great :Lakes

The average water temperature increased over 1.3 degrees C from the first 4 years of the 25 year data period to the last 4 years of the data period,

and over 1.5 degrees C from the first 8 years of the period to the last 8 years of the period. A linear regression showed an increase of 0.75 degrees C per decade.

Similar increases were found for monitored air temperatures. Some of data at: www.flcv.com/GLdata.html

North Atlantic

The average water temperature increased approximately 0.7 degrees C from the first 5 years of the 20 year data period to the last 5 years of the data period.

A linear regression showed an increase of 0.4 degrees per decade.

Similar increases were found for monitored air temperatures. Some of data at: www.flcv.com/ATCdata.html

South Atlantic

The average water temperature increased approximately 0.7 degrees C from the first 4 years of the 30 year data period to the last 4 years of the data period.

A linear regression showed an increase of 0.25 degrees per decade.

Similar increases were found for monitored air temperatures. Some of data at: www.flcv.com/ATCdata.html

Western Gulf

The average water temperature increased over 0.9 degrees C from the first 6 years of the 30 year data period to the last 6 years of the data period.

A linear regression showed an increase of 0.3 degrees per decade.

Similar increases were found for monitored air temperatures. Some of data at: www.flcv.com/GCdata.html

Eastern Gulf

The average water temperature increased over 0.35 degrees C from the first 4 years of the data period to the last 4 years of the data period.

A linear regression showed an increase of 0.28 degrees per decade for Mobile, Al , and 0.11 degrees per decade for Panama City, Fl.

Similar increases were found for monitored air temperatures.

(for details of summary data and regressions by buoy site, see www.flcv.com/sitesum.html )

Summary Table

Summary:			Air Temperatures		Centigrade				Sea Surface Temperatures			Centigrade
Atlantic Coast				Differential		Differential				Differential		Differential
			D0578	D0588	D0504	D0596			D0578	D0588	D0504	D0596	(78 and 88 were mixed NAO
44004	Cape May, NJ		1.93	1.35	1.24	1.36			1.35	1.09	0.36	1.61	(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
			D05a8586										(85 was weak NAO
MISM1	Maticicus Rock, Me		0.65		0.98	0.94						na	(86 more high NAO
	(St Lawrence River)		D0593						D0593				(93 more high NAO
ABAN6	Alexandria Bay, NY		1.97	na	1.05	1.40			0.95	na	0.64	1.22
			D0584		D0504				D0584				(2004 was mixed, more high
44009	Delaware Bay		1.48	1.95	0.33	1.18			1.30	1.87	0.11	1.28	(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
			D0582						D0582				(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
44008	Nantucket		1.50	0.58	0.85	3.22			1.48	1.23	1.05	3.35	(2004 was mixed, more high
44007	SE of Portland, Me			negative	0.63	0.55				0.71	0.29	0.64
					D0496
44013	E of Boston, Ma			negative	0.57	0.26				0.88	0.31	0.25
			D0405a77	D0405a88	D0504	D0405a96	(some 05 data		D0405a77	D0405a88	D0504	D0405a96	(96 & 77 were mixed NAO, more low
41001	Cape Hatteras, NC		1.57	1.00	-0.10	1.15	(missing		0.70	0.60	0.07	0.70	(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
			D0577	D0588					D0577	D0588		D0596	(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
41002	S. Hatteras, SC		1.87	0.26	-0.32	0.85			0.35	0.78	-0.26	0.86	(96 & 77 were mixed NAO, more low
			D0405a79to81						D0405a79to81	D0581			(79 & 80 were mixed NAO
41004	SE of Charleston, SC		0.46		0.34	0.96			0.69	0.79	0.12	1.48	(81 was low NAO, 80 more low than high
		(1996 na)	D0503	D0588		D0597			D0503	D0588			(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
41008	Grey's Reef, Savanna		0.16	0.50	-0.02	0.84	(1996 na)		0.41	0.79	0.01	0.82	(97 was mixed NAO year
			D0405av9293		D0496		D0405av9293		D0405av9293	D0405a91			(91 was high NAO following high
44014	Virginia Beach		1.31		0.78	0.41	1.31		0.87	negative	1.58	1.00	(92&93 were more high than low
			D0595		D0496		D0504			D0595	D0496		(95 was high NAO in high NAO period
41010	Canaveral East		0.20		0.35	0.18	-0.18			-0.11	0.54	0.40	(96 was mixed NAO, mostly low NAO
			D0589		D0496					D0489	D0504	D0405a96	(1989 was highest NAO year
41009	Cape Canaveral		-0.15		0.35	0.02				0.30	-0.46	0.28
			Air Temperature						Sea Surface Temperature
Gulf Coast			D0590	D0588		D0504	D0596		D0590	D0588	D0504	D0598	(1990 & 1991 were high NAO
42020	Corpas Christi, Tx		0.80	na		-0.03	0.41		0.44		-0.04	0.17	(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
			D0577		D0581				D0577		D0504	D0596	(96 & 77 were mixed NAO, more low
42002	S of Sabine, Tx		1.99	1.47	1.02	0.09	0.82		1.19	1.07	0.11	1.04	(96 was mixed, more low
			D0590										(90 mostly high NAO
42019	S of Freeport, Tx		0.25	na		0.54	1.24			na	0.51	0.68	(following high NAO period
			D0593										(93 was in high NAO period
42035	S of Galveston, Tx		1.34	na		0.36	1.12			na	0.27	1.07
			D0596										(84 was mixed NAO
BURL1	SW Pass, La			1.29			1.19			na		na	(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
			D0577						D0577				(76 was mixed NAO
42001	MidGulf, S of SW Pass		1.34	1.09		0.53	0.74		1.46	1.1	0.42	0.71	(77 was mixed NAO, more low
											D0496		(89 was highest NAO year
42007	SE of Biloxi, Ms			0.69	0.27	0.23	0.62			1.28	0.39	0.11	(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
						(some 05 SST data					D0496		(96 mixed NAO, more low
DP1A1	S of Dauphin Island, Al			2.32		(missing	0.90			1.06	0.46	0.52	(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
			D0405a9697		D0597				D0405a9697		D0496		(96 mixed NAO, more low
42040	Mobile South, Al		0.68		0.98	0.79	1.06		0.46		0.36	0.51	(97 mixed NAO
					D0597	D0504			D0597		D0504
42039	S of Pensacola				0.33	0.43	1.22		0.55		0.43	0.19
	(much 05 data missing)		D0577	D0588		D0496			D0405a77	D0405a88	D0504	D0596	(78 high NAO & 77 low NAO
42003	S of Panama City		1.37	0.46		0.16	0.02		0.76	0.44	-0.12	0.07	(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
			D0405a9697	D05a9697	D05a9697	D0504							(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
CDRF1	Cedar Key, Fl		0.80	1.10	1.10	0.40	1.65					na
			D05a8788	D0588					05&04 na	D0388	D0396	05&04 na	(87 mixed NAO
VENF1	Venice, Fl		0.70	0.51		0.54	0.07			1.22	0.52		(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
											D0504		(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
42036	West of Tampa			na		-0.01	0.25				-0.15	0.48
				D0588		D0504							(88 was mixed NAO,89 was highest NAO year
SMKF1	Sombrero Key			0.12		-0.13	-0.24			0.80	na	0	(much 05 and 96 data not available, 04 na
						D0496			D0503		D0496		(96 was mixed, more low
LONF1	Long Key	Fl				0.47	0.13		-0.12		0.39	0.30	(2003 was mixed NAO year
			D0492		D0592	D0496			D0592		D0504		(92 was mixed NAO in high NAO period
SANF1	Sand Key	Fl	0.13		-0.24	0.06	-0.24		0.05		-0.31	0.36	(96 low mixed NAO
				D0588		D0496			D0488		D0496		(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
MLRF1	Molasses Reef, Fl			0.42		0.21	-0.06		0.95	0.16	0.49	0.16	(2004 was mixed NAO year, more high
			D0405a92	(much 05 data missing		D0496			D0405a9293		D0496		(92 high NAO
FWYF1	Fowey Rocks, Fl		0.38			0.67	-0.06		0.15		0.41	0	(93 mixed NAO
			D0403	D0488	(2005 data na	D0496			D0403	D0488	D0496		(2003 weak mixed NAO year
LKWF1	Lake Worth, Fl		-0.15	0.82	na	0.34	na		0.25	0.76	0.17	na	(2004 was mixed NAO year, more high
Alaska
			D0577	D0588	D0504	D0596			D0577	D0588	D0496	D0596
46001	Gulf of Alaska, Kodiak		2.46	1.26	0.05	1.32			2.65	0.36	1.19	0.99
46060	W. Orca Bay, Valdez,Ak		na		0.47	1.57			na	na	0.57	0.93
46061	Seal Rocks, S of Valdez		na		0.27	1.48			na	na	0.66	0.81	data	www.flcv.com/Akdata.html
Great Lakes
			D0581	D0588	D0504	D0596			D0581	D0588	D0504	D0596		(81 was low NAO year
45001	Mid Lake Superior, Mi		2.1	0.8		3.2			2.37	0.74		4.21		(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
														(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
45002	Mid Lake Michigan, Mi		2.32	1.8		3.13			3.19	2.19		3.99
45003	Lake Huron-NEof Alpena		2.05	1.05		2.78			3.01	1.86		3.42
45004	E. Superior, Hancock		2.78	1.96	2.75	4.37			3.73	2.32	3.57	5.41
45005	L. Erie,NW of Cleveland		0.98	1.33	1.10	1.79			1.72	1.77	1.01	2.77
			D0585						D0585
45007	S. L. Michigan, Wisc.		2.11	1.11	1.50	3.96			2.39	1.78	1.69	4.67
														(81 was low NAO year
California			D0581	D0588	D0504	D0596			D0581	D0588	D0504	D0596		(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
46012	Half Moon Bay, S.F.,Ca		0.58	1.46		0.76			0.84	1.00		0.70		(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
							(some 81 data
46014	Point Arena, Ca		0.16	0.67		0.05	(missing		0.42	0.54		0.09
													D0496	(81 was low NAO year
46006	600 NM W of Eureka,Ca			0.73		0			0.91	0.53		0	0.18	(96&2005 were mixed NAO, more low
							D0488							2004 was high NAO year
46025	Santa Monica Basin		na	0.30		-0.18	0.43		na	0.64		0.2	0.32	(88 was mixed NAO, fairly neutral overall
		note1: 1996 had similar NAO pattern to 2005
		note2: temperature differences for 1st and 15th of each month compared at 6:00 or 8:00 pm and average taken
		note3: the North Atlantic Oscillation tends to bring longer and colder winters to the East Coast during low NAO pattern and
		warmer years overall during high NAO patterns;
		note4: 2005, the end year of this assessment had the low NAO pattern
		Note5	D0588=	temperature	change	between	1988 and	2005

Most of the site calculations have been revised by doubling the sample size and not all of these cases have had the data replaced at this time. This was done especially for buoy sites that had considerable missing data and thus lower sample sizes. Most buoy sites now use 96 data points per year, but a few with little missing data and apparently reliable results still use 48 data points.

North Atlantic Oscillation Trend

The NAO is a north-south shift (or vice versa) in the track of storms and depressions across the North Atlantic Ocean and into Europe. The storm track exhibits variations from winter to winter in its strength (i.e., number of depressions) and position (i.e., the median route taken by that winter’s storms), but a particularly recurrent variation is for the storm track to be either strong with a north-eastward orientation taking depressions into NW Europe (a high NAO winter, Figure 1a) or weaker with an east-west orientation taking depressions into Mediterranean Europe (a low NAO winter, Figure 2a). Since the Atlantic storms that travel into Europe control our rainfall, there is a strong influence on European precipitation patterns (with a wet northern Europe and a dry Mediterranean Europe during a high NAO winter, Figure 1b, and the opposite during a low NAO winter).

The year-to-year variability in storm tracks is associated with a change in the mean atmospheric circulation averaged over the winter season. This is evident in the anomalous sea level pressure (SLP) patterns associated with high or low NAO winters (Figures 1c and 2c). When the Iceland Low pressure centre is deeper than usual, the Azores High is stronger than usual, and vice versa. The change in the mean atmospheric circulation drives patterns of warming and cooling over much of the northern hemisphere (Figures 1d and 2d). For example, when the NAO is high, the SLP gradient between Iceland and the Azores/Iberia is enhanced (Figure 1c), driving stronger westerly and southwesterly flow that carries warm maritime air over the cold winter Eurasian land mass, bringing anomalously warm winter temperatures (Figure 1d).

Throughout the course of the winter, the NAO comes alive as both the high and the low intensify and fluctuate in pressure relative to one another, creating dramatic variations over the Atlantic Ocean and the surrounding continents.

When the pressure difference between the two systems is large, they bring higher temperatures to northern Europe, cause droughts in the Middle East, and push up the mercury in the northeastern United States. When the pressure difference between the two systems is small, they push wet weather toward those countries surrounding the Mediterranean, send Scandinavia into a deep freeze, and decrease the temperature along the East Coast.

When the NAO is positive, the high-pressure system residing near the Azores strengthens. The winds rotating around the system expand and push warm air up from the Caribbean. "This creates warmer conditions and generally less snowfall in the Eastern U.S. ,"

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects the strength and direction of winds blowing across the North Atlantic Ocean. In turn, the winds alter the circulation of water in the ocean. The effects on the Gulf of Maine are significant. In particular, the NAO helps determine the characteristics of water flowing at depths of 150 meters into the Gulf of Maine from the continental slope through the Northeast Channel. The Northeast Channel separates Georges Bank and Nova Scotia. Like an umbilical cord, it is a major connector between the Gulf of Maine and the North Atlantic Ocean. Either of two distinct, deep water masses—one cold, one relatively warm—may predominate outside the Gulf of Maine along the continental slope. Approximately one year after the NAO index becomes positive, Warm Slope Water penetrates the Northeast Channel into the Gulf. Conversely, one year after the NAO index becomes negative, Labrador (cold) Slope Water enters through the Northeast Channel. Because the Warm Slope Water and Labrador Slope Water differ in their temperature and the nutrients that they carry, the Gulf of Maine ecosystem is affected tremendously by the shift between these two masses of water from the continental slope.

The conventional scenario for a La Nina U.S. winter would be for warmer than normal in the southeast and south central regions, along with colder than normal in the Northwest and along the west coast and the western and central Canadian border

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_ts.shtml

http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/Images/nao.gif

El Nino/La Nina Effects on U.S. temperatures and weather

In the continental US, during El Niño years, temperatures in the winter are warmer than normal in the North Central States, and cooler than normal in the Southeast and the Southwest.

During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.

Anomalie plots

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/research/matt/index.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/lanina/index.html

La Nina temperatures in U.S. (during strong La Nina Event for those months)

Oct-Jan

Texas (somewhat warmer than usual)

Florida & East Coast near normal

Dec-Feb

Texas warmer than usual

Louisiana, Miss., Florida Panhandle, Chesapeake area (somewhat warmer than usual)

Jan-Mar

Texas, Louisiana, Miss., Alabama, Central Atlantic (warmer than usual)

Florida(N & C) somewhat warmer than usual

S Florida (about normal)

Feb-April

W Texas somewhat warmer than usual

New England somewhat colder than usual

Maine colder than usual

Rest about normal (N&C Fla & S Atlantic somewhat warmer in Feb-Mar)

Mar-May

Texas somewhat warmer than usual

Central & N Atlantic & Maine (colder than usual)

N Florida Gulf and C Atlantic (somewhat colder than usual)

Rest about normal

April-June

Most coastal about normal

New England somewhat colder than usual

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/index.shtml

El Nino Effects

Dec- Feb Gulf area (wet & cool)

Oct-Dec

S Florida somewhat warmer

N Atlantic & N England somewhat warmer

Chesapeake area warmer than usual

Nov-Dec

S Florida, C & N Atlantic warmer than usual

Other Florida & Georgia somewhat warmer

Texas & La. about normal

Dec-Feb

W Texas, La, N Florida somewhat colder than usual

N Atlantic & N England somewhat warmer than usual

Rest about normal

Jan-Mar

All Gulf, S&C Atlantic somewhat colder than usual

New England somewhat warmer than usual

Feb-April

All Florida & S Atlantic much colder than usual

Rest of Gulf & C Atlantic colder than usual

New England somewhat warmer than usual

Mar-May

Most of Florida & S Atlantic much colder than usual

Rest of Gulf colder than usual

N Atlantic colder than usual

N England about normal

April-June

E Texas to Panhandle Florida about normal

W Texas, other Florida, S Atlantic somewhat colder than usual

N Atlantic somewhat colder than usual

El Niño, the periodic warming of the ocean surface in the eastern Pacific along the equator, usually begins in the summer and reaches its peak in late winter. The extra heat and moisture released into the atmosphere cause stronger than normal temperature differences between the equator and higher latitudes. As a result, the jet stream- the river of air five to seven miles above the earth- is much stronger than normal and further south, often right over Florida and blowing at more than 120 miles per hour.

The jet stream has a major influence on Florida weather since low-pressure systems generally develop and move along the jet stream. During strong El Niño events Florida experiences more frequent and stronger low-pressure systems from late fall through early spring. This increased storminess brings slightly cooler than normal temperatures, a greater chance of heavy rain and flooding, and severe weather such as tornadoes and damaging wind storms. This influence on Florida is most likely during very strong El Niño periods such as during 1997-98 when record-breaking rainfall, storminess, and deadly tornadoes occurred. Across the whole nation the greatest death and destruction was wrought on Florida while other parts of the nation, such as the upper Midwest, reaped the benefits of milder winters that saved heating fuel and reduced cold weather related deaths. (Greatest impact graphic)
La Niña, the periodic cooling of the ocean surface along the equator, causes weaker temperature differences between the equator and high latitudes and results in the average position of the jet stream being much further north, away from Florida. Strong La Niña events typically bring fewer low-pressure systems to Florida in the fall and winter. Weather conditions are much drier and slightly warmer. La Niña brings an increased chance of drought and wildfires and, surprisingly, a greater chance of freezing weather. The wintertime storm track is well north of Florida increasing the chances that strong low-pressure systems will pull cold Canadian air into the Deep South behind them. After record rainfall during the 1997-98 El Niño, Florida suffered through four seasons of drought as La Niña conditions prevailed.

El Niño /La Niña and Hurricanes -
The stronger than normal high-level winds that El Niño produces help give strength to wintertime storms that thrive on wind shear. However, hurricanes need weak wind shear to develop and grow and when El Niño begins brewing in the summer it can significantly lower the number of hurricanes, particularly Cape Verde storms which form in the extreme eastern Atlantic.

El Niño and La Niña have an impact on every hazard in this guide. El Niño generally means fewer hurricanes, but there is no guarantee that Florida will be spared. Hurricane Andrew struck in August 1992 in a below-normal hurricane season during a moderate to strong El Niño. El Niño often means stormier winters, but one cannot rule out a major winter storm such as the March 1993 Superstorm in any year. La Niña generally brings more hurricanes, but with no guarantee of a Florida landfall. La Niña also brings a greater threat of drought, wildfires, and freezes in winter. Efforts to forecast El Niño and La Niña have shown great improvement and research into the “teleconnections” with Florida weather has evolved to the point where experimental forecasts of impacts on Florida are now being produced. Knowledge of the future state of El Niño and La Niña and what it might mean for Florida should help to prepare for, and mitigate the effects of, hazardous weather. However, the bottom line remains - be prepared. La Niña and El Niño favor certain types of hazardous weather, but it is important to remember that dangerous weather can occur in any year, at any time and you should always be ready.

Web References:
El Niño and La Niña Tutorial from the Climate Prediction Center

Educational information on El Niño/La Niña and Florida weather and an experimental forecast of their effects from NWS Melbourne Florida