Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global
Warming
B. Windham(Editor),
past member of federal advisory panel on Global Warming
Most scientists agree that the planet's
climate has been growing warmer. The period Jan-August of 2010 has been the
hottest such period in history(111). The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the
period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard
Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above
the prior record with the help of the "El Niño of the century". The
unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar
irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool
phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle. (107) 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005 were all in the top 5 warmest years in
history, with 2000 and 2001 also among the warmest years in history (84,94,35).
"There has been a strong warming
trend over the past 30 years, a trend that has been shown to be due primarily
to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," (35,66). The 7 warmest years in recorded history have occurred
since 1997 and the 12 warmest have all been since 1990. The 1990s was the warmest decade in recorded
history (19,29,67,78,83,84), with 1998 the warmest in recorded history and each
month of 1998 setting all time highs(35,94). But the current decade appears it will
surpass the 90s (72,35).
The
global average temperature has increased about 1.5 degree Celsius since 1880, and
0.7 degrees Celsius since 1975 (29,16,36,41,49,90,94,72).
An even greater warming is seen in global average minimum temperatures which
have increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1950(76b). Northern hemisphere sea surface temperatures have
increased over 0.5 degrees C since 1980(67).
There is strong evidence that this warming trend is due to the
greenhouse effect related to a buildup of carbon dioxide and similar greenhouse
chemicals related to manmade increases in fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric
release of other chemicals (16,29,22,84). And experts expect a much more rapid increase
in the near future(100,29).
A dramatic warming of ground surface temperatures has occurred in areas
such as the North slope of Alaska and areas of Canada(38,49,93,109). Stanford University researchers recently concluded
in the journal Science, that the breakup of river ice on the Tanana River is
occurring an average of 5.5 days earlier in recent years than it did in
1917(93). Over the
decade between 1981 and 1991, areas between 45 and 70 degrees North had spring growth beginning 8
days earlier and remaining green 4 days longer(76). Evergreen trees are rapidly spreading north
and encroaching into northern tundra areas(67,78). All studies of groups of boreholes measuring
ground surface temperatures have found a warming trend in recent decades(37,49,90). There has also been a region-wide post-1970 warming trend
in the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska(19). The average
annual temperature rose 3.4 degrees F, with 6.3 degrees F increase in winter(109). Permafrost melting has caused degradation since
1982, damaging highways, infrastructure, etc.
For
the period 1979-1997 there was a trend in winter of warming by 1 degree Celsius
per decade in the Eastern Arctic Ocean , but a trend
of cooling by 1 degree C in the western Arctic Ocean. In the Spring there was a
significant warming throughout the Arctic, with +2 degrees C per decade in the
Eastern Arctic Ocean (11).
The spring warming was associated with a lengthening of the melt season in the
eastern Arctic. During the fall, the trends showed a significant warming of 2
degrees C per decade over the coasts of Greenland and in Siberia, but a cooling
of 1 degree C per decade over the Beaufort Sea. Siberia saw an increase of 1
degree Celsius in average summer temperatures compared to the average for the
period prior to 1980, and overall was more than 2 degrees warmer than in
preindustrial times(83). The warming
trend in most of the Arctic has accelerated since 1997(79,80)
"The Arctic sea
ice has reached its four lowest summer extents (area covered) in the last four
years," (112b). Since 2003, when the NASA satellite
started taking measurements, Alaska has lost 400 billion tons of land ice.
Together with Greenland and Antarctica, the amount of melted land ice is
approx. 2 trillion tons. (108a) As sea ice melts, the
Arctic waters absorb more heat in the summer, having lost the reflective powers
of vast packs of white ice. That absorbed heat is released into the air in the
fall. That has led to autumn temperatures in the last several years that are
six to 10 degrees warmer than they were in the 1980s. Arctic thawing is releasing methane — the
second most potent greenhouse gas. One study shows that the loss of sea ice
warms the water, which warms the permafrost on nearby land in Alaska, thus
producing methane. (108b) A second study suggests even
larger amounts of frozen methane are trapped in lakebeds and sea bottoms around
Siberia and they are starting to bubble to the surface in some spots in
alarming amounts, said Igor Semiletov, a professor at
the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. In late summer, Semiletov
found methane bubbling up from parts of the East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea at
levels that were 10 times higher than they were in the mid-1990s, he said based
on a study this summer. The amounts of
methane in the region could dramatically increase global warming if they get
released, he said. (108c)
In Siberia an area of
permafrost spanning a million square kilometres— the
size of France and Germany combined— has started to melt for the first time
since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age(79).
Siberia’s peat bogs
have been producing methane since they formed at the end of the last ice age,
but most of the gas had been trapped in the permafrost. The area, which
covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world’s largest
frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions
of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more
potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. The thaw has greatly
accelerated in the past three or four years.
Climate scientists warned that predictions of future global temperatures
would have to be revised upwards.
Western Siberia is heating up faster than anywhere else in the world,
having experienced a rise of some 3C in the past 40 years. Scientists are
particularly concerned about the permafrost, because as it thaws, it reveals
bare ground which warms up more quickly than ice and snow, and so accelerates
the rate at which the permafrost thaws.
Projections of the release of methane is to effectively double
atmospheric levels of the gas, leading to a 10% to 25% increase in global warming(79).
Katey Walter of the
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, told a meeting of the Arctic Research
Consortium of the US that her team had found methane hotspots in eastern
Siberia. At the hotspots, methane was bubbling to the surface of the permafrost
so quickly that it was preventing the surface from freezing over. According to Larry Smith, a
hydrologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, the west Siberian
peat bog could hold some 70bn tonnes of methane, a
quarter of all of the methane stored in the ground around the world(79). A widespread
decline in lake abundance and area has occurred in Siberia since
1973, despite slight precipitation increases to the region. The spatial pattern of lake
disappearance suggests that thaw and "breaching" of
permafrost is driving the observed losses, by enabling rapid lake
draining into the subsurface(80). Similar is occurring
in other arctic permafrost and tundra areas(86).
There was a record low in the size of the northern ice pack and greatest retreat ever on record in 2005(30), following very large retreats each of the last 4 years(72). Submarine measurements also indicate that the central ice pack thinned by 40 percent from the 1960s to the 1990s. Researchers from NASA and the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) have warned that the arctic ice cap could completely disappear within a century, after a satellite survey this summer revealed ice cover was at its lowest level ever(77). Sea ice coverage was just 2.06m square miles, the scientists said, which is around 20 per cent below the average cover at this time of year in the 1970s. This is low enough to put many arctic species, including the polar bear, at risk. The polar bear -- that pinnacle of megafauna adulation -- could disappear from the planet this century as a result of global warming, according to top scientists(78). The Arctic-dwelling animal, which is the world's largest land predator, is thought to be particularly susceptible to climate change because it relies on floating sea ice to catch seals and hitch lifts from feeding grounds back to den areas. Arctic sea ice is melting at a rate as high as 9 percent per decade, meaning the summers there could be entirely ice-free by 2050(69). The increase in the eastern North American continent temperatures is over 1 degree Celsius, and the increase in far northern climate has been approx. 2 degrees Celsius since the 1880s, closely matching the pattern predicted by climate models of NASA, NOAA, and other climate research groups regarding impacts of greenhouse gas buildups and global warming (49,50,67,68,81,29). Measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) in the northern hemisphere over the last century indicate that seasonal swings in concentration have increased 20 % to 40 % in the last 2 decades, and patterns indicate the growth season for trees is starting a full week earlier than the 1960s due to the atmospheric warming(29).
In
the last 50 years, the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed even more, about 2.5
degrees Celsius(61,90), though increased snowfall
caused by warmer temperatures and more water vapor has led to increased ice
thickness in some areas of the Antarctic continent. Two new climate studies predict that
global warming by the
end of the century will be even more
dramatic than a United Nations group has predicted. They both predict
temperature increases of over 7 degrees F by 2100. But they predict more rapid
increases than past studies, with an average predicted increase of 1.4 degrees
F by 2030(100). One Antarctic ice shelf
has completely disappeared and another has lost a chunk three times the size of
Rhode Island, according to a new U.S. Geological Survey report (110).The USGS
study focuses on Antarctica, the Earth's largest reservoir of glacial ice. It
shows that Antarctica's glaciers are melting more rapidly than previously known
because of climate change.
CLIMATE change researchers have detected
the first signs of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream — the mighty ocean current
that keeps Britain and Europe from freezing. They have found that one of the
“engines” driving the Gulf Stream — the sinking of supercooled
water in the Greenland Sea — has weakened to less than a quarter of its former
strength. The weakening, apparently caused by
global warming and the melting of the arctic icecap, could herald big changes
in the current over the next few years or decades. Paradoxically, it could lead
to Britain and northwestern and Europe undergoing a sharp drop in temperatures(39).
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Ocean
surface temperatures have also been found to be increasing(67). Ocean surface temperatures off California to
British Columbia have increased between 1.2 to 1.6 degrees Celsius since the
1950s, resulting in a dramatic decrease of 80% in the population of zooplankton
which is at the base of the food chain(43,23). Coastal ocean temperatures are 2 to 5 degrees F above
normal, which may be related to a lack of updwelling, in which cold,
nutrient-rich water is brought to the surface. This has
resulted in large declines of other parts of the ecosystem including a drop in
fishing tonnage of over 35%, and even higher decreases for some birds and fish
heavily dependent on zooplankton. Warm
water marine snails and mollusks off the U.S. Pacific coast have been found to
be expanding their range north at a rapid rate over the last decade(67).
Gulf and Atlantic air and sea surface temperature off Florida increased significantly over the last 17 years (14 buoy sites analyzed(106)). The air and sea surface temperature was measured by buoys spread all along the Florida Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Locations included Sombrero Key and Venice. Sombrero Key showed an increase in average air and surface temperatures between 1988 and 2005 of 1.46o C and 1.33oC respectively(2.63 oF and 2.39oF). Venice showed a similar pattern with air temperature increase of 0.7oC or 1.26oF. The air and water temperatures were sampled every hour over this period and can be found at the following web page. Six other Florida buoy sites showed similar increases over the last 10 to 13 years (Cedar Key, Dry Tortugas, Sand Key, Long Key, Fowey Rocks, Molasses Key), ranging from air temperature increases of 0.51oC to 0.88oC (0.91oF to 1.58oF) and sea surface temperature increases of 0.18oC to 0.6oC (0.33oF to 1.07oF). (106)
Six
more of the National Data Buoy Center buoys that had hourly data reported since
1988 showed a similar trend of increasing air and ocean surface temperatures,
off the Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach to Delaware. Buoys 41002, 41004, 41008,
42001, and 42002, 44004. The increase in average air
temperature over the buoys from 1988 to 2005 was from 0.5 to 1.98 degrees
Centigrade or 0.9 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, while the increase in
ocean surface temperature was 0.5 to 0.91 degrees Centigrade or 0.9 to 1.64
degrees Fahrenheit. (106)
The
largest warming during the last century in the Southeast of the US has occurred
along the Gulf Coast region. Much of the warming since the 1950s has occurred
in winter. Many
of the regional climate change findings over the past five to ten years can be
summarized as follows: Temperatures are increasing; Regional temperature changes are several times
larger than the global average; Daily
minimum temperatures are increasing at twice the rate of maximum temperatures
and several times the rate of global temperature increase; Increase for minimum
is 1.5o F since 1950 (0.7o F for maximum); Northern hemisphere sea surface
temperatures have increased 0.5 degrees C since 1980(67). There is evidence for an
enhanced hydrologic cycle; decrease in daily temperature range; more
atmospheric water vapor; more precipitation; more intense precipitation events;
stronger extra tropical storms. (51,40)
A most serious consequence of
climate change during the past Century to the Gulf Coast environments is
sea-level rise in response to increased melting of glaciers and polar ice ,
especially in Greenland(32), and thermal expansion of warmer oceans.(52,46,33,26,29)
The historical data suggested sea-level rise of about 12 cm (5 inches) over the
last 100 years, and a much greater rise of at least 30 cm would be expected during
the next 100 years based on the trend of 3 cm per decade of the last 10 years(103,33,26). 1992 satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon
indicated a rate of about 3 mm/yr but this appears to be increasing(29). According to a 1995 EPA study that
has not been updated by the current administration, global warming
is most likely to raise sea level 15 cm by the year 2050 and 34 cm by
the year 2100(65). There is also a 10 percent chance that climate change will contribute 30 cm by 2050 and 65 cm by 2100. These estimates do not include sea level rise caused by factors other than greenhouse warming such as subsidence. (the extent and timing of warming has speeded up considerably since 1995, and estimates of sea level rise have generally been significantly increased) A major assessment study by the UN sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) projects a sea level rise of from 9 cm to 88 cm with a best estimate of 48 cm.
Sea level rise is estimated to be a minimum of
12 inches(30 cm) during the current century(26), and
is expected to
swamp some coastal cities and villages, shrink islands, and make
hurricanes and other extreme weather events more
catastrophic. The current unprecedented sequence of
extreme weather events of 2010 with fires, floods, huge icebergs, etc.
"matches" scientific projections of more frequent and intense extreme
weather events due to global warming(112)
It must be stressed that
for the Gulf Coast region these are very conservative estimates of local sea
level rise, as continued deltaic and coastal subsidence is likely to significantly
enhance the apparent sea-level rise above global projections. Sea-level rise has already had significant
impacts on coastal areas and these impacts are very likely to increase (60,42,33,26,32,65,29). Between 1985 and 1995, southeastern
states lost more than 32,000 acres of coastal salt marsh due to a combination
of human development activities, sea-level rise, natural subsidence, and
erosion. About 35 square miles of coastal land were lost each year in Louisiana
alone from 1978 to 1990. Flood and erosion damage stemming from sea-level rise
coupled with storm surges are very likely to increase in coastal communities (33,29,65).
Along with the change and variability in temperature and precipitation, the Gulf Coast region has also experienced change and variability in extreme weather events. For the past 10–20 years, this region has experienced high frequency of weather related extreme events and disasters. The data of 1980–2000 (US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstracts 2001) indicated that of total 46 weather related extreme events and disasters occurred in US, 16 of them (34%) occurred in the Gulf Coast region, with 6 hurricanes, 4 flooding, 3 drought/heat wave, 2 tornado, and 1 tropical storm (Fig. 5 a and b). Hurricanes have become more frequent and energetic (40) with increased water temperatures warmed by global warming providing increased energy. Researchers found a sharp increase during the past 35 years in the number of category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones, the most intense storms that cause most of the damage on landfall. Globally, category 4 and 5 storms climbed 57% from the first half of the period to the second(40bc). As global warming trends continue, the hurricanes that occur later in the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical and coastal U.S. sea surface temperatures(40cd).
The average temperature in the area of the
Southern Ocean which includes the Larsen Ice Shelf in Antarctica has increased
2.5 degrees Celsius since the 1940s, resulting in collapse and disintegration
of 5 of the 9 Antarctic ice shelves which are now melting at a rapid rate(47,61). The shelf designated as Larsen B, 650 feet thick and with
a surface area of 1,250 square miles, has collapsed into small icebergs and
fragments, the British Antarctic Survey said. Before breaking apart, the ice
shelf was about the size of Rhode Island. However there are different effects
and different trends in the various regions of antarctica. Due to increased snowfall on eastern
Antarctica, the thickness of sheet ice is increasing and thus offsetting some
of the rise in world ocean levels by approx. 0.12 millimeters per year. The
increased snowfall appears to be due to global warming with increased water and
air temperatures allowing more water vapor and snow(3). And while temperatures have been increasing
significantly in some areas such as the Antarctic Peninsular extending toward
South America(74), in other dry inland areas it has
been decreasing(75). There has also been a reduction in solar irradiance in
some areas, perhaps due to increased haze.
In early 1995, an iceberg with an area of over 2000 square kilometers broke away(65,67),and there have been even larger losses in 1998(61). Other Antarctic ice sheets including the Wordie and Prince Gustav Sheets have been similarly affected, retreating as much as 15 kilometers per year. The Ross Ice Sheet is melting at 17 cm/year(65). Due to the temperature increase, the ecosystem and food chain in the Southern Ocean is also changing rapidly with salb which thrive in warmer waters replacing krill as the predominant form of zooplankton. Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets have major impacts on sea level rise since they contain the majority of the world's land based ice. Because winter air temperatures are well below freezing, warming of summer air temperatures or ocean temperatures around ice sheets have the largest impacts on ice melt. However increased warming could also produce increased snowfall which could partially offset melting(65). Greenland ice sheets have been found to be melting at increasing rates(32). The amount of freshwater ice dumped into the Atlantic Ocean has almost tripled in a decade(32c). Since 1991, the average winter temperature has risen almost 10 degrees. Last year, the annual melt zone reached farther inland and up to higher elevations than ever before. Since 2002, Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers have started moving faster. The Kangerlussuaq Glacier, like the Jakobshavn, has doubled its pace. The Helheim Glacier appears to be moving about half a football field every day. Twelve major outlet glaciers drain the ice sheet. If they all slide too quickly, there is a possibility that they could collapse and release the entire ice sheet into the ocean. The accelerating ice flow has been accompanied by an increase in seismic activity, as the three immense streams of ice shake the Earth. Last year, researchers detected as many ice quakes as the total recorded from 1993 through 1996. Should all of the ice sheet ever thaw, the meltwater could raise sea level 21 feet.
The temperature of the layer of water at 200
to 400 meters in the Arctic Ocean increased 0.5 degrees Celsius between 1991
and 1995(56). The temperature of the Atlantic water layer over the Arctic Lomonosov Ridge warmed by 1.0 degrees C from 1949 to
1998(81), and the sea ice in that area has thinned and shrunk “dramatically” in
recent years- thinning as much as 1 foot per year, by 15% between 1976 and
1987, and similarly since then. The
total area covered by sea ice in the arctic declined by 5% from 1978 to 1996 and at a rate of
4.3% per decade in the 1990s(48,81). Scientists
studying the polar regions conclude that the pace of
global warming and climate change are increasing rapidly, based on the rapid
changes in the polar areas, which strongly affect many global climate patterns.
Based on recorded ocean temperature at widespread locations, researchers have
recorded an increase in the temperature over a vast ocean area of one‑third
of one degree Fahrenheit in the past half‑century(99,etc.)
If ocean temperatures continue this warming
trend now being observed, this could produce "devastating biological
impacts"(44,67,33) as well as rapid sea level
rise. Current effects
of climate change, from sea level rise, infectious diseases such as malaria and
West Nile virus to extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods were
evaluated in a study funded by a large international insurance company(33,85). Changes to forests, agriculture, marine
habitat and water were also considered.
The average of current projections of sea
level rise over the next century is about 50 centimeters(19")
(29,57,16b), of which 34 cm is due to global warming(65). This level of rise would inundate over 5000
square miles of dry coastal and riverbank areas including serious effects on
many major cities, as well as an additional 4000 square miles of wetlands in
the U.S.
The following is taken from the
summary of an EPA study of the cost of protecting coastal property from
projected levels of sea level rise, done in 1991(101). Since the study has not been updated by the
current Administration, it represents the best estimate available from the
federal government on such costs.
“Previous
Government studies suggest that the expected global warming from the greenhouse
effect could raise sea level 30 to 200 centimeters (1 to 7 feet) in the 21st
century. This article presents the first nationwide assessment of the primary
impacts of such a rise on the United States: (1) the cost of protecting ocean
resort communities by pumping sand onto beaches and gradually raising barrier
islands in place; (2) the cost of protecting developed areas along sheltered
waters through the use of levees (dikes) and bulkheads; and (3) the loss of
coastal wetlands and undeveloped lowlands. The total cost of protective
measures for a 50 cm rise would be $235-485 billion, ignoring future
development. (1991 dollars) (Table 9)
We estimate that if no measures are
taken to hold back the sea, a one meter rise in sea level would inundate 14,000
square miles, with wet and dry land each accounting for about half the loss. The
1500 square kilometers (600-700 square miles) of densely developed coastal
lowlands could be protected for approximately one to two thousand dollars per
year for a typical coastal lot of ¼ acre. Given high coastal property values,
extensive efforts for holding back the sea would probably be cost-effective.
The environmental consequences of
doing so, however, may not be acceptable. Although the most common engineering
solution for protecting the ocean coast--pumping sand--would allow us to keep
our beaches, levees and bulkheads along sheltered waters would gradually
eliminate most of the nation's wetland shorelines. For a rise of 1 meter, the Florida
Panhandle coastal areas are projected to lose 85% of estuary areas, while other
coastal areas will lose 44% of estuary area. The value of these estuaries to
the fishing and tourism industries is huge.
There would also be a large increase in aquifer salt water
intrusion. The South Florida Water
Management District already spends millions of dollars per year to prevent
Miami's Biscayne aquifer from becoming salty (Miller et al., 1989) and this
will increase over time. For a 50 cm sea
level rise, the projected losses of estuaries is 45%
along the Panhandle/Gulf coast and 20% elsewhere.
To
ensure the long-term survival of coastal wetlands, federal and state
environmental agencies should begin to lay the groundwork for a gradual
abandonment of coastal lowlands as sea level rises.
Previous
studies suggest that a one meter rise in sea level would generally cause
beaches to erode 100-1000 meters along the Florida coast..
Because most U.S. recreational beaches are less than 30 meters (100 feet) wide
at high tide, even a thirty-centimeter (one foot) rise in sea level would
require a response. A similar or larger
area than this would be affected by flooding/storm surge of a major hurricane
under the scenario of a 30 cm rise in sea level.(102) For states with
extensively developed barrier islands, the economic effects on such areas will
be higher.
Flooding. Coastal areas would become more
vulnerable to flooding for four reasons:
(1)
A higher sea level provides a higher base for storm surges to build upon; a one
meter rise in sea level would thus enable a 15-year storm to flood many areas
that today are only flooded by a 100-year storm (Kana et al., 1984). (2) Beach
erosion would leave particular properties more vulnerable to storm waves. (3)
Higher water levels would increase flooding due to rainstorms by reducing
coastal drainage (Titus et al., 1987). (4) Finally, a rise in sea level would
raise water tables and increase saltwater intrusion.
Our
estimates are optimistically low because we assume that it will only be
necessary to protect areas that are developed today, that is, about 15% of U.S.
coastal lowlands (1991). If development continues and we protect those areas as well, the
economic impact could be far greater because more dikes would be necessary and
wetland loss would be greater.” (101)
During the Middle Pliocene Period(3 to 4
million years ago), which had a temperature about the same as that predicted
sometime next century, the sea level was at least 25 meters higher than that of
today. This level would produce
catastrophic effects in most coastal areas and river basins all over the
world. Millions face loss of homes
and businesses due to climate change related sea level rise and flooding in the
UK and over half the countries farmland is endangered. Flooding in Europe has been extensive and
increasing. The cost over the next few decades could be over $ 340 billion(97).
According to the EM-DAT, the total natural disasters reported each year has been steadily increasing in recent decades, from 78 in 1970 to 348 in 2004. 2005 had the most deaths and the most economic cost due to natural disasters of any year during this period. These disasters include droughts, tsunamis, hurricanes, typhoons and floods and have been increasing over the past 25 years. In 1980, there were only about 100 such disasters reported per year but that number has risen to over 300 a year since 2000(25). According to the major insurers, such insured losses have increased by hundreds of billions and as much as 10 fold per decade(33,85) recently.
In addition to the adverse biological effects
previously discussed such as declining zooplankton and inundated coastal
wetlands and estuaries, serious impacts on coral reef ecosystems are already
being seen (49,59,63,78,96,23). Coral
reef ecosystems, which are the most productive systems, are very susceptible to
rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and increased UV-B radiation brought on
by global warming and damage to the ozone layer. Coral reef ecosystems have been showing
the results of increasing stress with major bleaching events at all major reefs
worldwide over the last decade. Some
of these reefs are dead or dying(59,63), with major
effects on these productive ecosystems(78,96). "We haven't seen an event
of the magnitude of this 2005 event in the Caribbean before," said Mark Eakin, coordinator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's Coral Reef Watch(63). A Pew Center report on reef systems concludes
that recent global increases in reef ecosystem degradation and mortality (the
“coral reef crisis”) are exceeding the adaptive capacity of coral reef
organisms and communities(59). The severity of
this crisis will only intensify with future changes in the global
climate. “Coral reefs are striking, complex, and important features
of the marine environment,” said Eileen Claussen,
President of the Pew Center. “If we fail to act, the destruction of these rare
and important ecosystems will continue unabated, threatening one of our world’s
most precious natural resources.”
The warming of oceans is also
causing major climatic changes: including more extremes of temperature and
rainfall; increased rainfall over oceans and droughts in land areas; more and
stronger hurricanes(40); increased water vapor in the stratosphere which
augments ozone layer decline; etc.(41,49,58,89,90,98). The increased level of temperature and
rainfall extremes is consistent with the predictions of the global warming
computer models, and has resulted in global weather related claims
averaging 6 times more per year between 1990 and 1995 compared to the previous
decade(40,41,67) and has continued in this pattern(85,33). A study by insurance
companies commissioned by the U.N. found insurance claims are escalating due to
the increased weather related problems, and predicts the resulting pattern will
cost insurers over $300 billion annually given current trends(85,33). "The number of really big weather
disasters has increased four-fold if we compare the last decade to the
1960s," Munich Re's Thomas Loster said.
"The economic losses have leaped seven-fold and the insured losses are 11
times greater." Climate change appears to be a major factor in
these increases.
A broad survey of ecosystems
throughout the world found that large number of species are more adversely
affected by normal factors when global temperature increases(96,78). The increased temperatures are resulting in drier summers and increased
heat-stress health problems and increased infectious diseases such as malaria,
yellow fever, dengue fever, west nile fever, and
viral encephalitis from mosquitoes and other carriers in more northern areas of
the northern hemisphere, for which there is currently no viable control(57,66,96,33).
A report by a WHO committee on climate change said that global warming
is killing at least 150,000 people a year and adversely affecting the health of
millions(70).
The report said that global warming was responsible for a significant
portion of global diarrhea and malaria, as well as increased lyme disease spread by ticks, and other
mosquito born diseases which kill millions annually worldwide. Additionally
global warming is causing drought, heat waves, and increased storms and storm
damage world wide. This year’s European
heat wave alone killed over 20,000 and caused losses of over $10 billion to insurance
agencies alone(33,85). Studies project a 10 fold increase in such
diseases in temperate areas over the next few decades(73,67,66,Note
37). The U.N. panel of scientists
predict this trend to become much more serious(16b,84,96).
After an initial increase in growth rate in northern forests over the last
decade, growth rates are no longer increasing and forests have been found to be
suffering increased forest fire and stress damage as well as increased insect
pest and disease problems in forests and crops that have not been seriously affected
historically by pests and diseases found normally in warmer areas(50). The predicted increased cooling load will
also require large amounts of fossil fuel energy unless other cooling options
are found.
At study sites in Arizona, Colorado, New
Mexico and Utah, the team found that from 40 to 80 percent of the pinyon trees died between 2002 and 2003. The researchers
confirmed the massive regional dieback of vegetation through both aerial
surveys and analysis of satellite images of those states’ pinyon-juniper
woodlands. The high heat that
accompanied the recent drought was the underlying cause of death for millions
of pinyon pines throughout the Southwest, according
to new research. The resulting landscape
change will affect the ecosystem for decades. Hotter temperatures coupled with
drought are the type of event predicted by global climate change models. The
new finding suggests big, fast changes in ecosystems may result from global
climate change(37).
Asthma
rates are rising throughout the Western world, and increasing
pollution in inner cities has greatly damaged the health of preschool-aged
children, whose rate of asthma rose by 160 per cent between 1980 and 1994(71,33).
"Plants are flowering significantly earlier over time and advancing
the growing season by approximately 0.8 days per year," (33) A
measure of the impact is that a quarter of the children living in Harlem are
asthmatic, and they are concentrated along bus routes. The highest incidence of
asthma in the U.S. is among African-American toddlers and low-income toddlers. The health effects of indoor and particulate
pollution are being made worse by heat domes over cities caused by buildup of
carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases.
The average regional temperature
west of the international dateline in the Pacific Ocean climbed considerably
between the 1950s and 1970s, and appears to be currently increasing as
well(15). The increase in ocean
temperatures, especially the Pacific, is causing increased rainfall in tropical
ocean areas(31,49).
This appears to be a major factor in the increase in atmospheric
temperatures. The average temperatures
in Central Asia have also been higher in recent decades than at any time in the
last 10,000 years(33). Ice core boring projects by scientists in
Greenland, Antarctica, China, and Tibet have all confirmed that historically
there has been a clear and significant association between the level of
greenhouse gases and global temperature over the last 40,000 years (45,49). These
studies also found that there have been large changes in global temperature in
relatively short time intervals. The Greenland ice sheet was found to be
melting away at a rate of about 50 cubic kilometers per year, mostly at the
southeast margin, which is enough to raise world ocean levels about 0.13 mm
each year(45).
All over the world glaciers and ice packs are melting at unusually fast rates(7,8,9,45,49,54,88).
Glaciologists estimate that glaciers in the Alps have lost over 50% and
worldwide at least 15% in the last 100 years, with glaciers retreating at an
average of 9.3 meters per year. A
research group for the Soviet Geophysical Group found over 85% of 408 Asian
glaciers monitored retreated in the last 40 years, with retreat averaging 13.3
meters per year. Mauri
Pelto, Director, North Cascade Glacier Project,
indicates that 91 of 114 glaciers monitored for the last decade in the
Northwest U.S. have retreated(7,9), and 24 glaciers in the Rocky Mountains are
retreating by an average of 13.7 meters per year. Since 1963, over 43% of the ice on Tanzania's
Mount Kenya has disappeared, and glaciers such as Kilimanjora
are now thinning at an unprecedented rate and so rapidly that they will
disappear soon for the first time in known history(88). Similar for ice in the Andes Mountains(45).
Glaciers in the Andes of Peru melted and retreated 3 times faster
between 1983 and 1991, compared to the period 1963 to 1978(49), and much faster
than this in the 1990s. Within
the next 15 years, all of the South American continent's small glaciers --
about 80 percent of the total -- will disappear, eliminating the main water
supply for many cities such as Quito, the capital of Ecuador and many other
areas without reasonable options to replace it. Between 1996 and 1998, the Antizana glacier lost 8 percent of its area. Smaller
glaciers are melting even faster; the Chacaltaya
glacier in Bolivia lost nearly half of its area and two-thirds of its volume
during the mid-1990s alone(49). Similar findings were observed in Kazakhstan,
Kenya, New Guinea, New Zealand, Scandinavia, the Canadian Rockies, and the Gulf
of Alaska. The average retreat of
these glaciers is 6.7 to 14.9 meters per year(7). The average temperature increase in these
glacial areas for the last century was found to be 0.7 degrees Celsius(7). Mountain
plant communities were found to be unable to migrate upward fast enough to
adapt to the changing climate(8). The decline in overall worldwide snow cover
of over 10 % in the last 2 decades has resulted in a further warming of surface
air temperatures(55).
From historic core bore data, glacial retreat such as is currently
occurring at a rapid rate can result in fairly abrupt and dramatic climate
shifts over a short time period.
Gases having a greenhouse effect
include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, CFCs, and water
vapor. Carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere has increased over 30% in the last century(13), and is increasing
exponentially by about 3.5 billion metric tons or 0.5% per year(1.5 ppmv/yr)(29,41,13).
EIA predicts that given current trends CO2 emissions will increase by
33-39% between 1994 and 2015(13).
Methane in the atmosphere has increased over 140% in the last 100 years
and is increasing exponentially at over 1% per year; methane has 3.7 times the
warming potential of CO2(29,22,66). Chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs) were increasing at 5% per year in
the early 1990s, and have 25,000 times more warming potential than CO2. Hydrofluorocarbons
are the fastest increasing greenhouse gases for the period 1990 to 1996 in the
U.S. and have increased 64% during that period. Nitrous oxide has 180 times
more warming potential than CO2, and is increasing in the atmosphere at approx.
0.3% per year(82), contributing about 25% as much heat trapping as CO2. Conversion of tropical forests to farm or
ranch land can reduce CO2 sequestering and can increase nitrous oxide emissions
by as much as a factor of 3 (53). Carbon sinks in the U.S. such as forests
declined 30% in the 1990s (82). In the
coming century, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and CFCs are projected
to be responsible respectively for 50%, 18%, 13%, and 12% of future greenhouse warming(29,22,82).
Based on core bore studies and evaluation of tree rings and fossils,
historical CO2 level trends match and correlate very closely with historical
temperature trends(49).
The Scientific Advisory Panel to the U.S.
Dept. of Energy considers the greenhouse effect/global warming to be the number
one energy problem in the U.S. Reports by the National Academy of Sciences and
the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, as well as U.N. committee (IPCC)
made up of over 1000 atmospheric scientists from all over the world support the
position that global warming is a serious problem and action should be taken to
reduce emissions(16). Several largescale
studies make a strong case that the buildup of greenhouse gases have initiated
a significant global warming over recent decades (29,36,41,49,57,64,16b), as
also predicted by numerous atmospheric temperature computer models using
greenhouse gas emissions along with effects of aerosol pollutants which exert a
cooling influence(16,21,29). Since
1850, sulfate and other aerosols are estimated to have offset about 1/3 of the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, but should have a
lesser effect in the future(65,29). The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change reported in 2001 that the average temperature is likely to increase by
between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the
year 2100 (29).
The computer models used for predicting
temperature and precipitation patterns have proven so accurate in recent years
that they are now being used by the U.S. weather service to issue long range
predictions over 1 year in the future(49,68).
Reports by the U.N. International Panel on Climate Change indicates that
additional major reductions in CO2 emissions beyond 1992 agreements would be
needed to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions(29,16b,34). No plans have been implemented that would
reduce CO2 increases to levels agreed upon in 1992 by industrial countries like
the U.S. and there are no restrictions on developing countries where the
largest increase is expected and where emissions are expected to double over
the next 100 years.
While industrial countries have in the past
released the majority of carbon dioxide and the U.S. is the world's largest
emitter, if the current trends continue Third World countries will release 4
times as much carbon dioxide by 2025 as developed countries do now (16,29).
Large rapidly developing countries such as China, India, Brazil, and S. Korea
have had the largest recent increases with an increase of between 13% to 40%
over the last 10 years (67,13). China is the world's most coal dependent
country and the largest producer of coal(25% of world
supply). China had a 65% increase in
carbon dioxide emissions in the 1980s.
China also has vast supplies of natural gas and renewable resources that
have not been widely developed. Some
scientists believe the results on temperature increases, weather pattern
changes, regional climate changes impacting plants and crops, and rising sea
levels could be catastrophic in the next 50 years if the present pattern
continues(67,73).
Dept. of Energy EIA reference case projections of world energy use
between 2005 and 2025 are for an increase of 2% per year or a total of 47% over
that period (13). U.S. energy use growth
is projected as 1.3% per year and a total of 27%. World coal consumption is projected to
increase by 2% per year for a total of 45%, while U.S. coal consumption is
projected to increase by 1.5% for a total of 35% over the next 20 years. World
carbon dioxide emissions based on this reference case are projected to increase
by 2% per year with a total increase of 48% (13). The goal of the Kyoto Accord on global
warming which has been adopted by the majority of nations is to reduce global
greenhouse gas emissions over this period.
The primary policies that have been implemented for this purpose are
carbon emission caps, carbon emission allowance trading, and emission reduction
incentives.
The U.S. produces over 20% of world greenhouse gas emissions(carbon
dioxide, methane,nitrogen oxide,CFCs,etc.). Carbon dioxide is responsible for approx.
50% of greenhouse gas emissions.
Burning fuel releases approx. 6 billion tons of carbon into the
atmosphere each year, with the largest amount coming from coal combustion(28,62,13).
Projections based on current trends estimate CO2 from burning fossil
fuels to increase 49% to 9 billion tons per year by 2010(13). Oceans, tropical
rain forests, and temperate forests provide a sink for some of the carbon emissions(62); however global deforestation adds an
additional amount of CO2 about 1/3 that of combustion to the atmosphere (62,13).
Coal plants are responsible for over 80%
of utility CO2 emissions in the U.S., with oil producing 80% as much CO2 per BTU of power produced as coal
and natural gas producing 60% as much CO2 per BTU(29). Electric power plants are responsible for
approximately 35% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions(13), while the transportation
system is responsible for 30%, the industrial sector for 24%, and
residential/commercial users 11%.
Pulverized coal plants produce approx. 2 pounds of CO2 per kwh of generated electricity.
A comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas
trends and impacts, as well as a
detailed analysis of alternative policies and options for stabilizing global
warming are given in recent
reports (58,18) and an IPCC report(34).
There are other factors that cause "positive feedbacks" which
augment the greenhouse effect, as well as factors that have the opposite effect
of cooling. Soot, sulfuric acid haze,
and haze from burning tropical forests are factors that tend to promote cooling
by blocking penetration of sunlight(21,49,55). Several
largescale studies have documented the cooling effect
of these atmospheric pollutant aerosols(36,40,49,55); computer models predict
that the cooling effect has been at least 0.5 degrees C and has offset the
global warming caused by greenhouse gas buildup by this amount. However a positive feedback of carbon soot in
areas of intense sunlight has also been noted that tends to increase global
temperatures by aiding the burnoff of the flat tops
of cumulous clouds, thus allowing more radiant penetration(92). The computer models modeling global
temperatures have been found to predict temperature patterns relatively
accurately compared to observed global temperature patterns when both green
house gas increases and pollutant aerosol patterns are taken into account (36,41,49,68,29).
Although there is direct global cooling due to global ozone layer loss(27), it has been found that the decline in ozone and
the buildup of greenhouse gases also have significant mutually reinforcing
mechanisms which make both more problematic(44). Global warming increases ice clouds in
the stratosphere which increases ozone layer decline, while ozone layer decline
increases ultraviolet radiation which causes decline in ocean phytoplankton
which then causes reduction in ocean sequester of CO2 from the atmosphere. The increased level of water vapor and
methane being documented in the stratosphere also amplifies global warming by
trapping heat(44).
The increasing level of world deforestation (2,29) and changes in the earth's albedo and cloud cover due to these other factors also have
feedback effects which have been modeled in models to assess global
warming. Another positive feedback
involves microbes in the soil which release CO2. Some studies indicate that as global
warming occurs, microbial action in soils and rice paddies will substantially
boost CO2 in the atmosphere over the next 50 years(24,29). Studies indicate considerable levels of
CO2 and methane are already being released in the tundra areas of Alaska and
Siberia, which was not occurring in the 1970s (24,54,79). The amount of carbon in
such tundra areas make this a significant feedback system for global
atmospheric carbon.
Estimates of the future cost of greenhouse emissions vary widely, with
most in the range 0.5 to 2.4 cents per kwh for power plants(6,12a,12b,29), but some are extremely high. A study by economist William Cline estimated
the total cost at $60 billion per year to the U.S., including: $18 billion for
agriculture impact of heat stress and drought; $11 billion for addition cooling
cost, and $7 billion for damage from
sea level rise(17). An Urban
Institute study assessing the infrastructure damage or needs to prevent damage
from sea level rise to the city of Miami, estimated the cost over the next
century at over $1 billion(4b).
Global population growth
and global warming are combining to cause current water shortages that affect over 1/3
of the world's population, adversely affecting agricultural output, economic
development, and drinking water supplies(84).
Some 450 million people in the world are now confronting serious
water-shortage problems and much larger numbers affected. But experts meeting in Stockholm to discuss water scarcity
say the number with serious shortages will likely grow to 2.7 billion within 25
years. North Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, and parts of India and China, as well
as areas in southern Europe, are most hurt by current shortages (84,85,89,90).
Parts of the U.S., however, aren't far behind. Warmer temperatures, the loss of
wetlands to sprawl, and the growing demands of agriculture are accelerating
shortages across the U.S. Major U.S.
cities and agricultural areas are already having serious problems and could go
dry in 10 to 20 years(84). This in combination with weather extremes,
declining grasslands, and desertification have resulted in a rapid drawdown of
global grain reserves and increased rapidly increasing prices(72,73). Around the world, groundwater
aquifers are being depleted faster than they are naturally replenished, tens of
millions of people have been
forced to move from their homes to make way for reservoirs behind
dams, many rivers run dry at least part
of the year, and over 20 percent of freshwater fish species are threatened
or endangered because their free‑flowing
river ecosystems have been
destroyed(87).
U.N. Secretary‑General Kofi
Annan said recently that drought and devastation were threatening the
livelihoods of more than a billion people in 110 countries. The U.N. Environment Programme
blamed humans as the main cause of desertification- citing population growth,
agriculture, grazing, and climate change as big‑time contributors to the
problem. Half of Africa's arable land
has been lost to desertification.
China's government promised to step up its efforts to fight
desertification, which has claimed more than a quarter of the country's
land. It said that 27.3 percent of
China's territory was desert, a mass that was increasing each year by
2,460 square km (950 square miles), or
the size of an average county. 1,500 square miles of land, roughly
the size of Rhode Island, is buried each year. "Because of this, natural disasters are
increasing in
frequency, the threat is getting ever bigger and the losses are mounting," the newspaper said. Desertification in China cost 54 billion yuan ($6.52 billion) in annual economic losses, it said.(95).
The relative cost damage due to carbon
dioxide emissions from different electric power sources are proportional to the
CO2 produced per unit of energy production.
This is also affected by energy efficiency levels of energy processes. While most coal power plants are only 33 %
efficient, some combined cycle gas plants are more than 50 % efficient and some
equipment such as cogeneration plants and fuel cells that also utilize waste
heat are more efficient still(67).
Internal combustion engines in cars and trucks are the biggest wasters
of energy, with efficiency about 15% on average. The total carbon dioxide produced by
different technologies(21b) in metric tons per Giga‑Watt
Hour(GWH) are:
conventional
coal plant 964
conventional
coal with wet scrubber 1030
fluidized bed
coal plant 980
IGCC(Coal
gasification combined cycle) 751
oil fired
plant 726
natural gas
fired plant 484
photovoltaics 5
solar
thermal 4
Montreal Protocol
Countries
reached an agreement in 1987 to phase out CFCs over the next 10 to 15 years(113). The
decline of the ozone layer has been stabilized since 2005 at a little over 3%
less than the 1964-1980 average, and the magnitude of the loss is no
longer increasing. According to new studies(114) based
on monitoring data,the winter ozone hole is expected
to gradually decline and repair over the next 60 years. The hole in the Earth's ozone
layer has shielded Antarctica from the worst effects of global warming until
now, according to the most comprehensive review to date of the state of the
Antarctic climate. But scientists warned that as the hole closes up in the next
few decades, temperatures on the continent could rise by around 3C on average,
with melting ice contributing to a global sea-level increases
of up to 1.4m. The western Antarctic peninsula has
seen rapid ice loss as the world has warmed, but other parts of the continent
have paradoxically been cooling, with a 10% increase in ice in the seas around
the region in recent decades. Many climate change sceptics have used the Antarctic cooling as evidence
against global warming.
But John
Turner of the British Antarctic Survey said scientists are now "very
confident" that the anomaly had caused by the ozone hole above Antarctica.
"We knew that, when we took away this blanket of ozone, we would have more
ultra-violet radiation. But we didn't realise the
extent to which it would change the atmospheric circulation of the
Antarctic."
These changes in weather have
increased winds in the Southern Ocean region and meant that a large part of the
continent has remained relatively cool compared with the western peninsula. But
because the the CFC gasses that caused the ozone hole
now been banned, scientists expect the damage to repair itself within the next
50-60 years. By then the cooling effect will have faded out and Turner said the
Antarctic would face the full effects of global warming. This means an increase
in average air temperatures of around 3C and a reduction in sea ice by around a
third.
The biggest threat to the continent comes from warming seas. Robert Binschadler, a glaciologist at Nasa who monitors Antarctic ice sheets, said: "The heat in the ocean is getting underneath the floating ice shelves, these floating fringes of the ice sheet that are hundreds of metres thick. That warm water is melting the underside of the ice shelf, reducing the buttressing effect." Thinning of the ice shelf at the fringes leads to glaciers moving more quickly. Average sea-level rise will be closer to 1.4m by the end of the century- more than the IPCC estimate which not take changes in the ozone layer over Antarctica into effect.
Methods
to control global warming
The most cost effective measures for
controlling carbon dioxide growth
appear to be conservation programs/standards and energy efficiency improvements(18,58,20,111). Many studies have documented that large
decreases in greenhouse gas emissions(10 to 30 percent) are possible through
such measures with no net economic cost due to savings on energy cost(18,16b,20,58,111). Additional large savings are possible at
little net cost. Another innovative
approach being investigated is carbon sequestering by ocean calcareous algae
stimulated by addition of iron-rich materials(49) or by halophyte plants that
grow in saline or desert soils(2).
Recent studies that assess cost effectiveness of methods to reduce
greenhouse emissions include (21b,16,18,20,29,58). A U.S. Dept. of Energy study(21b)
ranked CO2 reduction strategies as follows:
Reduction Strategy Cost Maximum Percent
($/ton
removed) CO2 Reduction
Conservation Standards
High < 0 * 18%
Very High 280 28%
Reforestation Offsets 88 10%
Sequestering by Algae or
Halophyte plants 100 to 200 30%
Flue gas scrubbing 230 (coal power plant)
Carbon Tax $100 /ton 565
31%
$250 /ton 710 51%
*
increased cost fully recovered by reduced energy use
over time.
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