Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Warming
B.
Windham(Editor), past member of federal advisory panel
on Global Warming
Few scientists doubt that the planet's
climate is indeed growing warmer. The year 2007 tied
for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth
of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied
1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C
above the prior record with the help of the "El Niño of the century".
The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar
irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool
phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle. (107) 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005 were all in the
top 5 warmest years in history, with 2000 and 2001 also among the warmest years
in history (84,94,35). "There has
been a strong warming trend over the past 30 years, a trend that has been shown
to be due primarily to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," (35,66).
The 7 warmest years in recorded history
have occurred since 1997 and the 12 warmest have all been since 1990. The 1990s was the warmest decade in recorded
history (19,29,67,78,83,84), with 1998 the warmest in recorded history and each
month of 1998 setting all time highs(35,94). But the current decade appears it will
surpass the 90s (72,35). The global average temperature has increased about
1.5 degree Celsius since 1880, and 0.7 degrees Celsius since 1975 (29,16,36,41,49,90,94,72). An even greater warming is seen in
global average minimum temperatures which have increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius
since 1950(76b). Northern hemisphere sea
surface temperatures have increased over 0.5 degrees C since 1980(67). There is strong evidence that this warming
trend is due to the greenhouse effect related to a buildup of carbon dioxide
and similar greenhouse chemicals related to manmade
increases in fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric release of other chemicals (16,29,22,84). And experts expect a much more rapid increase
in the near future(100,29).
A dramatic warming of ground surface
temperatures has occurred in areas such as the North slope of Alaska and areas
of Canada(38,49,93).
Stanford
University researchers recently concluded in the journal Science, that the
breakup of river ice on the Tanana River is occurring
an average of 5.5 days earlier in recent years than it did in 1917(93). Over the decade between 1981 and 1991, areas
between 45 and 70 degrees
North had spring growth beginning 8 days earlier and remaining
green 4 days longer(76). Evergreen
trees are rapidly spreading north and encroaching into northern tundra areas(67,78). All
studies of groups of boreholes measuring ground surface temperatures have found
a warming trend in recent decades(37,49,90). There has also been a region-wide post-1970 warming trend in the sea
surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska(19).
For the period 1979-1997 there was a
trend in winter of warming by 1 degree Celsius per decade in the Eastern Artic Ocean , but a trend of cooling by 1 degree C in the western
Arctic Ocean. In the Spring there was a significant warming throughout the
Arctic, with +2 degrees C per decade in the Eastern Arctic Ocean
(11). The spring warming was
associated with a lengthening of the melt season in the eastern Arctic. During
the fall, the trends showed a significant warming of 2 degrees C per decade
over the coasts of Greenland and in Siberia, but a cooling of 1 degree C per
decade over the Beaufort Sea. Siberia saw an increase of 1 degree Celsius in
average summer temperatures compared to the average for the period prior to
1980, and overall was more than 2 degrees warmer than in preindustrial
times(83). The warming trend in most of
the Arctic has accelerated since 1997(79,80)
Since
2003, when the NASA satellite started taking measurements, Alaska has lost 400
billion tons of land ice. Together with Greenland and Antarctica, the amount of
melted land ice is approx. 2 trillion tons. (108a) As
sea ice melts, the Arctic waters absorb more heat in the summer, having lost
the reflective powers of vast packs of white ice. That absorbed heat is
released into the air in the fall. That has led to autumn temperatures in the
last several years that are six to 10 degrees warmer than they were in the
1980s. Arctic thawing is releasing
methane — the second most potent greenhouse gas. One study shows that the loss
of sea ice warms the water, which warms the permafrost on nearby land in Alaska,
thus producing methane. (108b) A second study suggests
even larger amounts of frozen methane are trapped in lakebeds and sea bottoms
around Siberia and they are starting to bubble to the surface in some spots in
alarming amounts, said Igor Semiletov, a professor at
the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. In late summer, Semiletov
found methane bubbling up from parts of the East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea at levels that were 10 times higher than they
were in the mid-1990s, he said based on a study this summer. The amounts of methane in the region could
dramatically increase global warming if they get released, he said. (108c)
In Siberia an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres— the size of France and Germany combined— has
started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end
of the last ice age(79). Siberia’s peat bogs have been producing methane
since they formed at the end of the last ice age, but most of the gas had been
trapped in the permafrost. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of
western Siberia, is the world’s largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear
that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes
of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the
atmosphere. The thaw has greatly accelerated in the past three or four
years. Climate scientists warned that
predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised
upwards. Western Siberia is heating up
faster than anywhere else in the world, having experienced a rise of some 3C in
the past 40 years. Scientists are particularly concerned about the permafrost,
because as it thaws, it reveals bare ground which warms up more quickly than
ice and snow, and so accelerates the rate at which the permafrost thaws. Projections of the release of methane is to
effectively double atmospheric levels of the gas, leading to a 10% to 25%
increase in global warming(79).
Katey
Walter of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, told a meeting of the Arctic
Research Consortium of the US that her team had found methane hotspots in
eastern Siberia. At the hotspots, methane was bubbling to the surface of the
permafrost so quickly that it was preventing the surface from freezing over. According to Larry Smith, a hydrologist at the
University of California, Los Angeles, the west Siberian peat bog could hold
some 70bn tonnes of methane, a quarter of all of the
methane stored in the ground around the world(79). A widespread
decline in lake abundance and area has occurred in Siberia since
1973, despite slight precipitation increases to the region. The spatial pattern of lake
disappearance suggests that thaw and "breaching" of
permafrost is driving the observed losses, by enabling rapid lake
draining into the subsurface(80). Similar is occurring
in other arctic permafrost and tundra areas(86).
There
was a record low in the size of the northern ice pack and greatest
retreat ever on record in 2005(30), following very large retreats each of the
last 4 years(72). Submarine measurements also indicate
that the central ice pack thinned by 40 percent from the 1960s to the 1990s. Researchers
from NASA and the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) have warned that
the arctic ice cap could completely disappear within a century, after a
satellite survey this summer revealed ice cover was at its lowest level ever(77). Sea ice
coverage was just 2.06m square miles, the scientists said, which is around 20
per cent below the average cover at this time of year in the 1970s. This is low
enough to put many arctic species, including the polar bear, at risk. The
polar bear -- that pinnacle of megafauna adulation --
could disappear from the planet this century as a result of global warming,
according to top
scientists(78). The Arctic-dwelling animal, which is the world's largest land
predator, is thought to be particularly susceptible to climate change because
it relies on floating sea ice to catch seals and hitch lifts from feeding
grounds back to den areas. Arctic sea ice is melting at a rate as high as 9
percent per decade, meaning the summers there could be entirely ice-free by
2050(69). The increase in the eastern North
American continent temperatures is over 1 degree Celsius, and the increase in
far northern climate has been approx. 2 degrees Celsius since the 1880s,
closely matching the pattern predicted by climate models of NASA, NOAA, and
other climate research groups regarding impacts of greenhouse gas buildups and
global warming (49,50,67,68,81,29).
Measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) in the northern
hemisphere over the last century indicate that seasonal swings in concentration
have increased 20 % to 40 % in the last 2 decades, and patterns indicate the
growth season for trees is starting a full week earlier than the 1960s due to
the atmospheric warming(29).
In the last 50 years, the Antarctic Peninsula has
warmed even more, about 2.5 degrees Celsius(61,90),
though increased snowfall caused by warmer temperatures and more water vapor
has led to increased ice thickness in some areas of the Antarctic continent. Two new climate studies predict that
global warming by the
end of the century will be even more
dramatic than a United Nations group has predicted. They both predict
temperature increases of over 7 degrees F by 2100. But they predict more rapid
increases than past studies, with an average predicted increase of 1.4 degrees
F by 2030(100).
CLIMATE
change researchers have detected the first signs of a slowdown in the Gulf
Stream — the mighty ocean current that keeps Britain and Europe from freezing. They have found that one of the “engines” driving
the Gulf Stream — the sinking of supercooled water in
the Greenland Sea — has weakened to less than a quarter of its former
strength. The
weakening, apparently caused by global warming and the melting of the arctic
icecap, could herald big changes in the current over the next few years or
decades. Paradoxically, it could lead to Britain and northwestern and Europe
undergoing a sharp drop in temperatures(39).
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Ocean surface temperatures have also
been found to be increasing(67). Ocean surface temperatures off California to
British Columbia have increased between 1.2 to 1.6 degrees Celsius since the
1950s, resulting in a dramatic decrease of 80% in the population of zooplankton
which is at the base of the food chain(43,23). Coastal ocean temperatures are 2 to 5 degrees F above
normal, which may be related to a lack of updwelling, in which cold,
nutrient-rich water is brought to the surface. This has resulted in large
declines of other parts of the ecosystem including a drop in fishing tonnage of
over 35%, and even higher decreases for some birds and fish heavily dependent
on zooplankton. Warm water marine snails
and mollusks off the U.S. Pacific coast have been found to be expanding their
range north at a rapid rate over the last decade(67).
Gulf and Atlantic air and sea
surface temperature off Florida increased significantly over the last 17 years
(14 buoy sites analyzed(106)). The air and sea surface
temperature was measured by
buoys spread all along the Florida Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
Locations included
Sombrero Key and Venice. Sombrero Key showed an increase in average air and surface
temperatures between 1988 and 2005 of 1.46o C and 1.33oC respectively(2.63 oF
and 2.39oF). Venice showed a
similar pattern with air temperature increase of 0.7oC or 1.26oF. The air and water temperatures were sampled
every hour over this period and can be found at the following web page. Six other Florida buoy sites showed similar
increases over the last 10 to 13 years (Cedar Key, Dry Tortugas, Sand Key, Long
Key, Fowey Rocks, Molasses Key), ranging
from air temperature increases of 0.51oC to 0.88oC (0.91oF
to 1.58oF) and sea surface
temperature increases of 0.18oC to 0.6oC (0.33oF
to 1.07oF). (106)
Six more of the National
Data Buoy Center buoys that had hourly data reported since 1988 showed a
similar trend of increasing air and ocean surface temperatures, off the
Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach to Delaware. Buoys 41002, 41004, 41008,
42001, and 42002, 44004. The increase in average air
temperature over the buoys from 1988 to 2005 was from 0.5 to 1.98 degrees
Centigrade or 0.9 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, while the increase in
ocean surface temperature was 0.5 to 0.91 degrees Centigrade or 0.9 to 1.64
degrees Fahrenheit. (106)
The largest warming during the last
century in the Southeast of the US has occurred along the Gulf Coast region.
Much of the warming since the 1950s has occurred in winter. Many of the
regional climate change findings over the past five to ten years can be
summarized as follows: Temperatures are increasing; Regional temperature changes are several
times larger than the global average;
Daily minimum temperatures are increasing at twice the rate of maximum
temperatures and several times the rate of global temperature increase;
Increase for minimum is 1.5o F since 1950 (0.7o F for
maximum); Northern hemisphere
sea surface temperatures have increased 0.5 degrees C since 1980(67). There is evidence for an
enhanced hydrologic cycle; decrease in daily temperature range; more
atmospheric water vapor; more precipitation; more intense precipitation events;
stronger extra tropical storms. (51,40)
A most serious consequence of climate change during the past
Century to the Gulf Coast environments is sea-level rise in response to increased
melting of glaciers and polar ice , especially in Greenland(32), and thermal
expansion of warmer oceans.(52,46,33,26,29) The historical data suggested
sea-level rise of about 12 cm (5 inches) over the last 100 years, and a much
greater rise of at least 30 cm would be expected during the next 100 years
based on the trend of 3 cm per decade of the last 10 years(103,33,26). 1992 satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon
indicated a rate of about 3 mm/yr but this appears to be increasing(29). According to a 1995 EPA study that has not been
updated by the current administration, global warming is most likely
to raise sea level 15 cm by the year 2050 and 34 cm by
the year 2100(65). There is also a 10 percent chance that climate change will contribute 30 cm by 2050 and 65 cm by 2100. These estimates do not include sea level rise caused by factors other than greenhouse warming such as subsidence. (the extent and timing of warming has speeded up considerably since 1995, and estimates of sea level rise have generally been significantly increased) A major assessment study by the UN sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) projects a sea level rise of from 9 cm to 88 cm with a best estimate of 48 cm.
Sea level
rise is estimated to be a minimum of 12 inches(30 cm)
during the current century(26), and is expected to swamp some coastal cities and villages,
shrink islands, and make hurricanes and other extreme weather events more
catastrophic.
It must be stressed that for the Gulf Coast
region these are very conservative estimates of local sea level rise, as
continued deltaic and coastal subsidence is likely to significantly
enhance the apparent sea-level rise above global projections. Sea-level rise has already had significant
impacts on coastal areas and these impacts are very likely to increase (60,42,33,26,32,65,29). Between 1985 and 1995, southeastern
states lost more than 32,000 acres of coastal salt marsh due to a combination
of human development activities, sea-level rise, natural subsidence, and
erosion. About 35 square miles of coastal land were lost each year in Louisiana
alone from 1978 to 1990. Flood and erosion damage stemming from sea-level rise
coupled with storm surges are very likely to increase in coastal communities (33,29,65).
Along with the change and variability in temperature and precipitation, the Gulf Coast region has also experienced change and variability in extreme weather events. For the past 10–20 years, this region has experienced high frequency of weather related extreme events and disasters. The data of 1980–2000 (US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstracts 2001) indicated that of total 46 weather related extreme events and disasters occurred in US, 16 of them (34%) occurred in the Gulf Coast region, with 6 hurricanes, 4 flooding, 3 drought/heat wave, 2 tornado, and 1 tropical storm (Fig. 5 a and b). Hurricanes have become more frequent and energetic (40) with increased water temperatures warmed by global warming providing increased energy. Researchers found a sharp increase during the past 35 years in the number of category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones, the most intense storms that cause most of the damage on landfall. Globally, category 4 and 5 storms climbed 57% from the first half of the period to the second(40bc). As global warming trends continue, the hurricanes that occur later in the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical and coastal U.S. sea surface temperatures(40cd).
The average temperature in the area of the Southern Ocean which includes
the Larsen Ice Shelf in Antarctica has increased 2.5 degrees Celsius since the
1940s, resulting in collapse and disintegration of 5 of the 9 Antarctic ice
shelves which are now melting at a rapid rate(47,61). The shelf designated
as Larsen B, 650 feet thick and with a surface area of 1,250 square miles, has
collapsed into small icebergs and fragments, the British Antarctic Survey said.
Before breaking apart, the ice shelf was about the size of Rhode Island. However
there are different effects and different trends in the various regions of
antarctica. Due to increased snowfall on
eastern Antarctica, the thickness of sheet ice is increasing and thus
offsetting some of the rise in world ocean levels by approx. 0.12 millimeters
per year. The increased snowfall appears to be due to global warming with
increased water and air temperatures allowing more water vapor and
snow(3). And while temperatures have
been increasing significantly in some areas such as the Antarctic Peninsular
extending toward South America(74), in other dry inland areas it has been
decreasing(75). There has also been a reduction in solar irradiance in some
areas, perhaps due to increased haze.
In early 1995, an iceberg with an area of over 2000 square kilometers broke away(65,67),and there have been even larger losses in 1998(61). Other Antarctic ice sheets including the Wordie and Prince Gustav Sheets have been similarly affected, retreating as much as 15 kilometers per year. The Ross Ice Sheet is melting at 17 cm/year(65). Due to the temperature increase, the ecosystem and food chain in the Southern Ocean is also changing rapidly with salb which thrive in warmer waters replacing krill as the predominant form of zooplankton. Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets have major impacts on sea level rise since they contain the majority of the world's land based ice. Because winter air temperatures are well below freezing, warming of summer air temperatures or ocean temperatures around ice sheets have the largest impacts on ice melt. However increased warming could also produce increased snowfall which could partially offset melting(65). Greenland ice sheets have been found to be melting at increasing rates(32). The amount of freshwater ice dumped into the Atlantic Ocean has almost tripled in a decade(32c). Since 1991, the average winter temperature has risen almost 10 degrees. Last year, the annual melt zone reached farther inland and up to higher elevations than ever before. Since 2002, Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers have started moving faster. The Kangerlussuaq Glacier, like the Jakobshavn, has doubled its pace. The Helheim Glacier appears to be moving about half a football field every day. Twelve major outlet glaciers drain the ice sheet. If they all slide too quickly, there is a possibility that they could collapse and release the entire ice sheet into the ocean. The accelerating ice flow has been accompanied by an increase in seismic activity, as the three immense streams of ice shake the Earth. Last year, researchers detected as many ice quakes as the total recorded from 1993 through 1996. Should all of the ice sheet ever thaw, the meltwater could raise sea level 21 feet.
The
temperature of the layer of water at 200 to 400 meters in the Arctic Ocean
increased 0.5 degrees Celsius between 1991 and 1995(56). The temperature of the
Atlantic water layer over the Arctic Lomonosov Ridge
warmed by 1.0 degrees C from 1949 to 1998(81), and the sea ice in that area has
thinned and shrunk “dramatically” in recent years- thinning as much as 1 foot
per year, by 15% between 1976 and 1987, and similarly since then. The total area covered by sea ice in the
arctic declined by 5% from 1978 to 1996 and at a rate of 4.3% per decade in
the 1990s(48,81). Scientists studying
the polar regions conclude that the pace of global
warming and climate change are increasing rapidly, based on the rapid changes
in the polar areas, which strongly affect many global climate patterns.
Based on recorded ocean temperature at
widespread locations, researchers have recorded an increase in the
temperature over a vast ocean area of one‑third of one degree Fahrenheit
in the past half‑century(99,etc.)
If
ocean temperatures continue this warming trend now being observed, this could
produce "devastating biological impacts"(44,67,33)
as well as rapid sea level rise. Current
effects of
climate change, from sea level rise, infectious diseases such as malaria and
West Nile virus to extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods were
evaluated in a study funded by a large international insurance company(33,85). Changes to forests, agriculture, marine
habitat and water were also considered.
The average
of current projections of sea level rise over the next century is about 50 centimeters(19") (29,57,16b), of which 34 cm is due to
global warming(65). This level of rise
would inundate over 5000 square miles of dry coastal and riverbank areas
including serious effects on many major cities, as well as an additional 4000
square miles of wetlands in the U.S.
The
following is taken from the summary of an EPA study of the cost of protecting
coastal property from projected levels of sea level rise, done in
1991(101). Since the study has not been
updated by the current Administration, it represents the best estimate
available from the federal government on such costs.
“Previous Government
studies suggest that the expected global warming from the greenhouse effect
could raise sea level 30 to 200 centimeters (1 to 7 feet) in the 21st century.
This article presents the first nationwide assessment of the primary impacts of
such a rise on the United States: (1) the cost of protecting ocean resort
communities by pumping sand onto beaches and gradually raising barrier islands
in place; (2) the cost of protecting developed areas along sheltered waters
through the use of levees (dikes) and bulkheads; and (3) the loss of coastal
wetlands and undeveloped lowlands. The total cost of protective measures for a
50 cm rise would be $235-485 billion, ignoring future development. (1991
dollars) (Table 9)
We estimate that if no measures are taken to hold
back the sea, a one meter rise in sea level would inundate 14,000 square miles,
with wet and dry land each accounting for about half the loss. The 1500 square
kilometers (600-700 square miles) of densely developed coastal lowlands could
be protected for approximately one to two thousand dollars per year for a
typical coastal lot of ¼ acre. Given high coastal property values, extensive
efforts for holding back the sea would probably be cost-effective.
The environmental consequences of doing so,
however, may not be acceptable. Although the most common engineering solution
for protecting the ocean coast--pumping sand--would allow us to keep our
beaches, levees and bulkheads along sheltered waters would gradually eliminate
most of the nation's wetland shorelines. For a rise of 1 meter, the Florida Panhandle
coastal areas are projected to lose 85% of estuary areas, while other coastal
areas will lose 44% of estuary area. The value of these estuaries to the
fishing and tourism industries is huge.
There would also be a large increase in aquifer salt water
intrusion. The South Florida Water
Management District already spends millions of dollars per year to prevent
Miami's Biscayne aquifer from becoming salty (Miller et al., 1989) and this
will increase over time. For a 50 cm sea
level rise, the projected losses of estuaries is 45%
along the Panhandle/Gulf coast and 20% elsewhere.
To ensure the long-term
survival of coastal wetlands, federal and state environmental agencies should
begin to lay the groundwork for a gradual abandonment of coastal lowlands as
sea level rises.
Previous studies suggest
that a one meter rise in sea level would generally cause beaches to erode
100-1000 meters along the Florida coast.. Because most
U.S. recreational beaches are less than 30 meters (100 feet) wide at high tide,
even a thirty-centimeter (one foot) rise in sea level would require a
response. A similar or larger area than
this would be affected by flooding/storm surge of a major hurricane under the
scenario of a 30 cm rise in sea level.(102) For states with extensively
developed barrier islands, the economic effects on such areas will be
higher.
Flooding. Coastal areas would become more vulnerable to
flooding for four reasons:
(1) A higher sea level
provides a higher base for storm surges to build upon; a one meter rise in sea
level would thus enable a 15-year storm to flood many areas that today are only
flooded by a 100-year storm (Kana et al., 1984). (2) Beach erosion would leave
particular properties more vulnerable to storm waves. (3) Higher water levels
would increase flooding due to rainstorms by reducing coastal drainage (Titus
et al., 1987). (4) Finally, a rise in sea level would raise water tables and
increase saltwater intrusion.
Our estimates are
optimistically low because we assume that it will only be necessary to protect
areas that are developed today, that is, about 15% of U.S. coastal lowlands
(1991). If development continues and we protect those areas as well, the
economic impact could be far greater because more dikes would be necessary and
wetland loss would be greater.” (101)
During the
Middle Pliocene Period(3 to 4 million years ago), which had a temperature about
the same as that predicted sometime next century, the sea level was at least 25
meters higher than that of today. This
level would produce catastrophic effects in most coastal areas and river basins
all over the world. Millions face loss of
homes and businesses due to climate change related sea level rise and flooding
in the UK and over half the countries farmland is endangered. Flooding in Europe has been extensive and
increasing. The cost over the next few decades could be over $ 340 billion(97).
According to the EM-DAT,
the total natural disasters reported each year has been steadily increasing in
recent decades, from 78 in 1970 to 348 in 2004.
2005 had the most deaths and the most economic cost due to natural
disasters of any year during this period.
These disasters include droughts, tsunamis, hurricanes, typhoons and
floods and have been increasing over the past 25 years. In 1980, there were
only about 100 such disasters reported per year but that number has risen to
over 300 a year since 2000(25). According to the major insurers, such
insured losses have increased by hundreds of billions and as much as 10 fold
per decade(33,85) recently.
In addition to the adverse biological effects
previously discussed such as declining zooplankton and inundated coastal
wetlands and estuaries, serious impacts on coral reef ecosystems are already
being seen (49,59,63,78,96,23). Coral
reef ecosystems, which are the most productive systems, are very susceptible to
rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and increased UV-B radiation brought on
by global warming and damage to the ozone layer. Coral reef ecosystems have been showing
the results of increasing stress with major bleaching events at all major reefs
worldwide over the last decade. Some
of these reefs are dead or dying(59,63), with major
effects on these productive ecosystems(78,96). "We haven't seen an event
of the magnitude of this 2005 event in the Caribbean before," said Mark Eakin, coordinator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's Coral Reef Watch(63). A Pew Center report on reef systems concludes
that recent global increases in reef ecosystem degradation and mortality (the
“coral reef crisis”) are exceeding the adaptive capacity of coral reef
organisms and communities(59). The severity of
this crisis will only intensify with future changes in the global
climate. “Coral reefs are striking, complex, and important features
of the marine environment,” said Eileen Claussen,
President of the Pew Center. “If we fail to act, the destruction of these rare
and important ecosystems will continue unabated, threatening one of our world’s
most precious natural resources.”
The warming of oceans is also causing
major climatic changes: including more extremes of temperature and rainfall;
increased rainfall over oceans and droughts in land areas; more and stronger
hurricanes(40); increased water vapor in the stratosphere which augments ozone
layer decline; etc.(41,49,58,89,90,98).
The increased level of temperature and rainfall extremes is consistent
with the predictions of the global warming computer models, and has resulted in
global weather related claims averaging 6 times more per year between
1990 and 1995 compared to the previous decade(40,41,67) and has continued in
this pattern(85,33). A study by insurance companies commissioned by the U.N.
found insurance claims are escalating due to the increased weather related
problems, and predicts the resulting pattern will cost insurers over $300
billion annually given current trends(85,33). "The number of really big weather
disasters has increased four-fold if we compare the last decade to the
1960s," Munich Re's Thomas Loster said.
"The economic losses have leaped seven-fold and the insured losses are 11
times greater." Climate change appears to be a major factor in these increases.
A
broad survey of ecosystems throughout the world found that large number of
species are more adversely affected by normal factors when global temperature increases(96,78).
The increased temperatures are
resulting in drier summers and increased heat-stress health problems and
increased infectious diseases such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue fever, west
nile fever, and viral encephalitis from mosquitoes
and other carriers in more northern areas of the northern hemisphere, for which
there is currently no viable control(57,66,96,33). A report by a WHO
committee on climate change said that global warming is killing at least
150,000 people a year and adversely affecting the health of millions(70). The report said that global warming was
responsible for a significant portion of global diarrhea and malaria, as well
as increased lyme disease
spread by ticks, and other mosquito born diseases which kill millions annually
worldwide. Additionally global warming is causing drought, heat waves, and
increased storms and storm damage world wide.
This year’s European heat wave alone killed over 20,000 and caused
losses of over $10 billion to insurance agencies alone(33,85). Studies project a 10 fold increase in such
diseases in temperate areas over the next few decades(73,67,66,Note
37). The U.N. panel of scientists
predict this trend to become much more serious(16b,84,96).
After an initial increase in growth rate in northern forests over the last
decade, growth rates are no longer increasing and forests have been found to be
suffering increased forest fire and stress damage as well as increased insect
pest and disease problems in forests and crops that have not been seriously
affected historically by pests and diseases found normally in warmer areas(50). The
predicted increased cooling load will also require large amounts of fossil fuel
energy unless other cooling options are found.
At
study sites in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, the team found that from
40 to 80 percent of the pinyon trees died between
2002 and 2003. The researchers confirmed the massive regional dieback of
vegetation through both aerial surveys and analysis of satellite images of
those states’ pinyon-juniper woodlands. The high heat that accompanied the recent
drought was the underlying cause of death for millions of pinyon
pines throughout the Southwest, according to new research. The resulting landscape change will affect
the ecosystem for decades. Hotter temperatures coupled with drought are the
type of event predicted by global climate change models. The new finding
suggests big, fast changes in ecosystems may result from global climate change(37).
Asthma
rates are rising throughout the Western world, and increasing pollution in
inner cities has greatly damaged the health of preschool-aged children, whose rate of
asthma rose by 160 per cent between 1980 and 1994(71,33). "Plants are
flowering significantly earlier over time and advancing the growing season by
approximately 0.8 days per year," (33) A measure of the impact is that a quarter of the children living in
Harlem are asthmatic, and they are concentrated along bus routes. The highest
incidence of asthma in the U.S. is among African-American toddlers and low-income
toddlers. The health effects of indoor
and particulate pollution are being made worse by heat domes over cities caused
by buildup of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases.
The average regional temperature west
of the international dateline in the Pacific Ocean climbed considerably between
the 1950s and 1970s, and appears to be currently increasing as well(15). The increase in ocean temperatures,
especially the Pacific, is causing increased rainfall in tropical ocean areas(31,49). This
appears to be a major factor in the increase in atmospheric temperatures. The average temperatures in Central Asia have
also been higher in recent decades than at any time in the last 10,000 years(33). Ice core
boring projects by scientists in Greenland, Antarctica, China, and Tibet have
all confirmed that historically there has been a clear and significant
association between the level of greenhouse gases and global temperature over
the last 40,000 years (45,49). These studies also found that there have
been large changes in global temperature in relatively short time intervals.
The Greenland ice sheet was found to be melting away at a rate of about 50
cubic kilometers per year, mostly at the southeast margin, which is enough to
raise world ocean levels about 0.13 mm each year(45).
All over the world glaciers and ice packs are melting at unusually fast rates(7,8,9,45,49,54,88).
Glaciologists estimate that glaciers in the Alps have lost over 50% and
worldwide at least 15% in the last 100 years, with glaciers retreating at an
average of 9.3 meters per year. A
research group for the Soviet Geophysical Group found over 85% of 408 Asian
glaciers monitored retreated in the last 40 years, with retreat averaging 13.3 meters
per year. Mauri
Pelto, Director, North Cascade Glacier Project,
indicates that 91 of 114 glaciers monitored for the last decade in the
Northwest U.S. have retreated(7,9), and 24 glaciers in the Rocky Mountains are
retreating by an average of 13.7 meters per year. Since 1963, over 43% of the ice on Tanzania's
Mount Kenya has disappeared, and glaciers such as Kilimanjora
are now thinning at an unprecedented rate and so rapidly that they will
disappear soon for the first time in known history(88). Similar for ice in the Andes Mountains(45).
Glaciers in the Andes of Peru melted and retreated 3 times faster
between 1983 and 1991, compared to the period 1963 to 1978(49), and much faster
than this in the 1990s. Within the next 15
years, all of the South American continent's small glaciers -- about 80 percent
of the total -- will disappear, eliminating the main water supply for many
cities such as Quito, the capital of Ecuador and many other areas without
reasonable options to replace it.
Between 1996 and 1998, the Antizana glacier
lost 8 percent of its area. Smaller glaciers are melting even faster; the Chacaltaya glacier in Bolivia lost nearly half of its area
and two-thirds of its volume during the mid-1990s alone(49).
Similar findings were observed in Kazakhstan,
Kenya, New Guinea, New Zealand, Scandinavia, the Canadian Rockies, and the Gulf
of Alaska. The average retreat of
these glaciers is 6.7 to 14.9 meters per year(7). The average temperature increase in these
glacial areas for the last century was found to be 0.7 degrees Celsius(7). Mountain
plant communities were found to be unable to migrate upward fast enough to
adapt to the changing climate(8). The decline in overall worldwide snow cover
of over 10 % in the last 2 decades has resulted in a further warming of surface
air temperatures(55).
From historic core bore data, glacial retreat such as is currently
occurring at a rapid rate can result in fairly abrupt and dramatic climate
shifts over a short time period.
Gases having a greenhouse effect
include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, CFCs, and water
vapor. Carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere has increased over 30% in the last century(13), and is increasing
exponentially by about 3.5 billion metric tons or 0.5% per year(1.5 ppmv/yr)(29,41,13).
EIA predicts that given current trends CO2 emissions will increase by
33-39% between 1994 and 2015(13).
Methane in the atmosphere has increased over 140% in the last 100 years
and is increasing exponentially at over 1% per year; methane has 3.7 times the
warming potential of CO2(29,22,66). Chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs) were increasing at 5% per year in
the early 1990s, and have 25,000 times more warming potential than CO2. Hydrofluorocarbons
are the fastest increasing greenhouse gases for the period 1990 to 1996 in the
U.S. and have increased 64% during that period. Nitrous oxide has 180 times
more warming potential than CO2, and is increasing in the atmosphere at approx.
0.3% per year(82), contributing about 25% as much heat trapping as CO2. Conversion of tropical forests to farm or
ranch land can reduce CO2 sequestering and can increase nitrous oxide emissions
by as much as a factor of 3 (53). Carbon sinks in the U.S. such as forests
declined 30% in the 1990s (82). In the
coming century, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and CFCs are projected
to be responsible respectively for 50%, 18%, 13%, and 12% of future greenhouse warming(29,22,82).
Based on core bore studies and evaluation of tree rings and fossils,
historical CO2 level trends match and correlate very closely with historical
temperature trends(49).
The Scientific Advisory Panel to the U.S.
Dept. of Energy considers the greenhouse effect/global warming to be the number
one energy problem in the U.S. Reports by the National Academy of Sciences and
the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, as well as U.N. committee (IPCC)
made up of over 1000 atmospheric scientists from all over the world support the
position that global warming is a serious problem and action should be taken to
reduce emissions(16). Several largescale
studies make a strong case that the buildup of greenhouse gases have initiated
a significant global warming over recent decades (29,36,41,49,57,64,16b), as
also predicted by numerous atmospheric temperature computer models using
greenhouse gas emissions along with effects of aerosol pollutants which exert a
cooling influence(16,21,29). Since
1850, sulfate and other aerosols are estimated to have offset about 1/3 of the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, but should have a
lesser effect in the future(65,29). The United
Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2001
that the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8
degrees Celsius (2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100 (29).
The computer
models used for predicting temperature and precipitation patterns have proven
so accurate in recent years that they are now being used by the U.S. weather
service to issue long range predictions over 1 year in the future(49,68). Reports by the U.N. International Panel on
Climate Change indicates that additional major reductions in CO2 emissions
beyond 1992 agreements would be needed to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas
emissions(29,16b,34). No plans have been
implemented that would reduce CO2 increases to levels agreed upon in 1992 by
industrial countries like the U.S. and there are no restrictions on developing
countries where the largest increase is expected and where emissions are
expected to double over the next 100 years.
While
industrial countries have in the past released the majority of carbon dioxide
and the U.S. is the world's largest emitter, if the current trends continue
Third World countries will release 4 times as much carbon dioxide by 2025 as developed
countries do now (16,29). Large rapidly developing countries such as China,
India, Brazil, and S. Korea have had the largest recent increases with an
increase of between 13% to 40% over the last 10 years (67,13). China is the world's most coal dependent
country and the largest producer of coal(25% of world
supply). China had a 65% increase in
carbon dioxide emissions in the 1980s.
China also has vast supplies of natural gas and renewable resources that
have not been widely developed. Some scientists
believe the results on temperature increases, weather pattern changes, regional
climate changes impacting plants and crops, and rising sea levels could be
catastrophic in the next 50 years if the present pattern continues(67,73).
Dept.
of Energy EIA reference case projections of world energy use between 2005 and
2025 are for an increase of 2% per year or a total of 47% over that period
(13). U.S. energy use growth is
projected as 1.3% per year and a total of 27%.
World coal consumption is projected to increase by 2% per year for a
total of 45%, while U.S. coal consumption is projected to increase by 1.5% for
a total of 35% over the next 20 years. World carbon dioxide emissions based on
this reference case are projected to increase by 2% per year with a total
increase of 48% (13). The goal of the
Kyoto Accord on global warming which has been adopted by the majority of
nations is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions over this period. The primary policies that have been
implemented for this purpose are carbon emission caps, carbon emission
allowance trading, and emission reduction incentives.
The U.S. produces over 20% of world greenhouse gas emissions(carbon
dioxide, methane,nitrogen oxide,CFCs,etc.). Carbon dioxide is responsible for approx.
50% of greenhouse gas emissions.
Burning fuel releases approx. 6 billion tons of carbon into the
atmosphere each year, with the largest amount coming from coal combustion(28,62,13).
Projections based on current trends estimate CO2 from burning fossil
fuels to increase 49% to 9 billion tons per year by 2010(13). Oceans, tropical
rain forests, and temperate forests provide a sink for some of the carbon emissions(62); however global deforestation adds an
additional amount of CO2 about 1/3 that of combustion to the atmosphere (62,13).
Coal plants are responsible for over 80%
of utility CO2 emissions in the U.S., with oil producing 80% as much CO2 per BTU of power produced as coal
and natural gas producing 60% as much CO2 per BTU(29). Electric power plants are responsible for
approximately 35% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions(13), while the transportation
system is responsible for 30%, the industrial sector for 24%, and
residential/commercial users 11%.
Pulverized coal plants produce approx. 2 pounds of CO2 per kwh of generated electricity.
A comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas
trends and impacts, as well as a
detailed analysis of alternative policies and options for stabilizing global
warming are given in
recent reports (58,18) and an IPCC report(34). There are other factors that cause
"positive feedbacks" which augment the greenhouse effect, as well as
factors that have the opposite effect of cooling. Soot, sulfuric acid haze, and haze from
burning tropical forests are factors that tend to promote cooling by blocking
penetration of sunlight(21,49,55). Several largescale studies have documented the cooling effect of
these atmospheric pollutant aerosols(36,40,49,55); computer models predict that
the cooling effect has been at least 0.5 degrees C and has offset the global
warming caused by greenhouse gas buildup by this amount. However a positive feedback of carbon soot in
areas of intense sunlight has also been noted that tends to increase global
temperatures by aiding the burnoff of the flat tops
of cumulous clouds, thus allowing more radiant penetration(92). The computer models modeling global
temperatures have been found to predict temperature patterns relatively
accurately compared to observed global temperature patterns when both green
house gas increases and pollutant aerosol patterns are taken into account (36,41,49,68,29).
Although there is direct global cooling due to global ozone layer loss(27), it has been found that the decline in ozone and
the buildup of greenhouse gases also have significant mutually reinforcing
mechanisms which make both more problematic(44). Global warming increases ice clouds in
the stratosphere which increases ozone layer decline, while ozone layer decline
increases ultraviolet radiation which causes decline in ocean phytoplankton
which then causes reduction in ocean sequester of CO2 from the atmosphere. The increased level of water vapor and
methane being documented in the stratosphere also amplifies global warming by
trapping heat(44).
The increasing level of world deforestation (2,29) and changes in the earth's albedo and cloud cover due to these other factors also have
feedback effects which have been modeled in models to assess global
warming. Another positive feedback
involves microbes in the soil which release CO2. Some studies indicate that as global
warming occurs, microbial action in soils and rice paddies will substantially
boost CO2 in the atmosphere over the next 50 years(24,29). Studies indicate considerable levels of
CO2 and methane are already being released in the tundra areas of Alaska and
Siberia, which was not occurring in the 1970s (24,54,79). The amount of carbon in
such tundra areas make this a significant feedback system for global
atmospheric carbon.
Estimates of the future cost of greenhouse emissions vary widely, with
most in the range 0.5 to 2.4 cents per kwh for power plants(6,12a,12b,29), but some are extremely high. A study by economist William Cline
estimated the total cost at $60 billion per year to the U.S., including: $18
billion for agriculture impact of heat stress and drought; $11 billion for
addition cooling cost, and $7 billion
for damage from sea level rise(17).
An Urban Institute study assessing the infrastructure damage or needs to
prevent damage from sea level rise to the city of Miami, estimated the cost
over the next century at over $1 billion(4b).
Global population growth and global warming are combining to cause
current water shortages that
affect over 1/3 of the world's population, adversely affecting
agricultural output, economic development, and drinking water
supplies(84). Some 450 million people in
the world are now confronting serious water-shortage problems and much larger
numbers affected. But experts meeting in Stockholm
to discuss water scarcity say the number with serious shortages will likely
grow to 2.7 billion within 25 years. North Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, and parts of India
and China, as well as areas in southern Europe, are most hurt by current
shortages (84,85,89,90). Parts of the U.S., however, aren't far behind. Warmer
temperatures, the loss of wetlands to sprawl, and the growing demands of
agriculture are accelerating shortages across the U.S. Major U.S. cities and agricultural areas
are already having serious problems and could go dry in 10 to 20 years(84). This in
combination with weather extremes, declining grasslands, and desertification
have resulted in a rapid drawdown of global grain reserves and increased
rapidly increasing prices(72,73). Around the world, groundwater
aquifers are being depleted faster than they are naturally replenished, tens of
millions of people have been
forced to move from their homes to make way for reservoirs behind
dams, many rivers run dry at least part
of the year, and over 20 percent of freshwater fish species are threatened
or endangered because their free‑flowing
river ecosystems have been
destroyed(87).
U.N. Secretary‑General Kofi Annan said recently that
drought and devastation were threatening the livelihoods of more than a billion
people in 110 countries. The U.N.
Environment Programme blamed humans as the main cause
of desertification- citing population growth, agriculture, grazing, and climate
change as big‑time contributors to the problem. Half of Africa's arable land has been lost to
desertification. China's government
promised to step up its efforts to fight desertification, which has claimed
more than a quarter of the country's land.
It said that 27.3 percent of China's territory was desert, a mass that was
increasing each year by 2,460 square km
(950 square miles), or the size of an average county. 1,500
square miles of land, roughly the size of Rhode Island,
is buried each year.
"Because of this, natural disasters are increasing in frequency, the
threat is getting ever bigger and the losses
are mounting," the newspaper said. Desertification in China cost 54 billion yuan ($6.52 billion) in annual economic losses, it said.(95).
The relative cost damage due to carbon
dioxide emissions from different electric power sources are proportional to the
CO2 produced per unit of energy production.
This is also affected by energy efficiency levels of energy
processes. While most coal power plants
are only 33 % efficient, some combined cycle gas plants are more than 50 %
efficient and some equipment such as cogeneration plants and fuel cells that
also utilize waste heat are more efficient still(67). Internal combustion engines in cars and
trucks are the biggest wasters of energy, with efficiency about 15% on
average. The total carbon dioxide
produced by different technologies(21b) in metric tons
per Giga‑Watt Hour(GWH) are:
conventional coal plant 964
conventional coal with wet scrubber 1030
fluidized bed coal plant 980
IGCC(Coal gasification combined cycle) 751
oil fired plant 726
natural gas fired plant 484
photovoltaics 5
solar thermal 4
The most
cost effective measures for controlling carbon dioxide growth
appear to be
conservation programs/standards and
energy efficiency improvements(18,58,20,111). Many studies have documented that large
decreases in greenhouse gas emissions(10 to 30 percent) are possible through
such measures with no net economic cost due to savings on energy cost(18,16b,20,58,111). Additional large savings are possible at
little net cost. Another innovative
approach being investigated is carbon sequestering by ocean calcareous algae
stimulated by addition of iron-rich materials(49) or by halophyte plants that
grow in saline or desert soils(2).
Recent studies that assess cost effectiveness of methods to reduce
greenhouse emissions include (21b,16,18,20,29,58). A U.S. Dept. of Energy study(21b)
ranked CO2 reduction strategies as follows:
Reduction
Strategy Cost Maximum Percent
($/ton
removed) CO2 Reduction
Conservation Standards
High < 0 * 18%
Very High 280 28%
Reforestation Offsets 88 10%
Sequestering by Algae or
Halophyte plants 100 to
200 30%
Flue gas
scrubbing 230 (coal power plant)
Carbon
Tax $100 /ton 565 31%
$250 /ton 710 51%
* increased cost fully
recovered by reduced energy use over time.
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