Analysis of 2004 Florida Presidential Election Results by County Compared to Historical Patterns and Other Information.

This analysis of the Florida 2004 election data compares 2004 results for President to the 2000 election results

along with the increase in registration for Democrats and Republicans between 2000 and 2004. It identifies unusual swings

in some big Florida counties that do not appear consistent with other historical patterns. It also supplies documentation from

another study that appear to explain the swing, from the thousands of irregularities reported on election day by voters in

Florida to the non-partisan Election Protection hotline reporting system that was operating in most states in 2004. The

documentation also includes information from additional sources, and from other studies and Media reports.

As previously noted in a study by Univ. of California-Berkeley researchers, there are some big unusual patterns in the big

Florida touch screen counties. They had a big Repub vote swing that was not consistent with the 2000 vote and the Dem and Repub

registration increases between 2000 and 2004. These results are also consistent with the results of the 2004 Exit Poll data that

said that the Exit Poll showed a dead heat in Florida that was too close to call, with Kerry winning Ohio and the national total.

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf

The data for this analysis can be found at: www.flcv.com/fla04EA.html

The touch screen counties with unusual Republican vote increases include: Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsboro, Pinellas, Sarasota, and Lake.

Miami-Dade, Charlotte and Martin also had similar patterns but to a somewhat lesser degree.

The 3 south Florida counties Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach had the most reported vote switching and irregularities with about 1000 EIRS reports each.

Additionally among the Optical scan counties there were also similar patterns: Brevard, Manatee, Orange, Volusia, Osceola, and Polk.

Hernando, Highlands, Marion, Putnam, and Seminole also had similar pattern but to lesser degree.

The EIRS case documentation supplies information on big election problems and irregularities in Florida that appear to explain some of the swings seen.

Statewide: http://www.flcv.com/fraudpat.html

Summary of estimated vote swing due to election irregularities:

Touch screen counties

Broward County 75,000

Palm Beach County 55, 000

Hillsboro County 20,000

Dade County 45,000

Pinellas County 20,000

Sarasota County 4,500

Lake County 7,500

Martin County 2,600

Total 229,600

Optical Scan Counties

Orange County 15,000

Brevard County 20,000

Osceola County 7,500

Volusia County 15,000

Duval County 25,000

Manatee County 8,000

Polk County 6,400

Total 96,900

Total of all counties assessed 326,500

·

Florida Registrations

Rep Dem Other Total

3,892,492 4,261,249 2,147,549 10,301,290

37.8% 41.4% 20.8%

for details regarding estimates for individual counties see below:

The data I used came from:

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/index.shtml

http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/

http://www.floridacountiesmap.com/counties_list.shtml

Some more detailed analysis on individual counties follows:

Note: the methodology used here as a starting point uses the 2000 official election results as a base and assesses changes from that data, thus is known to have a conservative bias towards Republican since the starting data from the 2000 election is known to have a strong bias toward Repub based on the Media recount in 2001 and other assessments. It is known to not be an accurate indication of the actual voter intent in some counties in 2000. Remember butterfly ballots and big minority voter purges and absentee ballot irregularities and other manipulation that have been assessed since 2000 to have swung large numbers in 2000. But it is a readily available data set that has some usefulness in comparing the 2004 vote counts and did not have touch screens in most of the large counties.

Broward County						Touch		Screens
Registered Voters				Dem		Repub		Other		Total
2004	Broward		533976		283736		240357		1058069
Official Turnout = 66.4%
2000 vote		Percent			Registration			increase		2000 to	2004
Dem		67.40%			90551			(4.5 times more new Dems)
Repub		30.90%			20735
Assume
same percent Dem & Repub vote as 2000									with 4% higher Dem voters
Kerry	473788								495147
Bush	217211								217211
Diff(D-R)	256576								277936
Dems increase their percent of vote by 2% from 2000									with 4% higher Dem voters
Kerry	487847								509206
Bush	203152								188988
Diff(D-R)	284694								320218
Official 2004 Vote					Swing =		48173		to		111815
Kerry	451521
Bush	243118
Other	8310						best estimate =75,000
D-R Diff	208403
Total	702949

http://www.flcv.com/browardo.html

Palm Beach County Touch Screens

Registered Voters		Dem	Repub	Other	Total
2004		329232	233495	495342	729575
Official Turnout = 74.4%			Registration increase 2000 to 2004
2000 vote	Percent
Dem	62.30%		40856	(8 times more new Dems)
Repub	35.30%		5064
Assume
same percent Dem & Repub as 2000					with 4% higher Dem vote and 90% vote Kerry
Kerry	338186				350039
Bush	191621				192938
Diff(D-R)	146565				157101
Dems increase their percent of vote by 3% from 2000					with 4% higher Dem vote and 90% vote Kerry
Kerry	354471				366324
Bush	175336				176817
Diff	179136				189506
Official 2004 Vote			Swing =	30761	to	73702
Kerry	327698
Bush	211894
Other	3243		best estimate = 50,000
D-R Diff	115804
Total	542835

Preliminary best estimate = 50,000 based on documentation and detailed analysis by

Precincts in http://www.flcv.com/palmbeao.html

* Much of the discussion in the Duval County analysis also applies to Palm Beach and would result in a larger estimate of swing for Palm Beach County.

.

Dade County
Registered Voters		Dem	Repub	Other	Total
2004		453631	368334	236104	1058069
Official Turnout = 72.6%			Registration increase 2000 to 2004
2000 vote	Percent
Dem	'52.6%		69920	(1.8 times more new Dems)
Repub	46.3%		40546
Assume
same percent Dem & Repub as 2000 & 66.4% turnout-					with 4% higher Dem TO
Kerry	404051				420590
Bush	355657				357655
Diff(D-R)	48394				62935
Dems increase their percent of vote by 2% from 2000					with 4% higher Dem TO
Kerry	419630				435961
Bush	340469				342284
Diff	79161				93677
Official 2004 Vote			Swing =	908	to	46191*
Kerry	406099
Bush	358613
Other	3841
D-R Diff	47486

Preliminary best estimate = 40,000 based on documentation in

http://www.flcv.com/dadeo.html

* Much of the discussion in the analysis for Duval County regarding the 2000 election results also applied in Dade County.

Hillsboro County		another touch screen county
Registered Voters		Repub	Dem	Other	Total
2004		217766	258882	144553	621201
Official Turnout = 72.6%			Registration increase 2000 to 2004
2000 vote	Percent
Dem	'47.1%		44128	13.8% more new Dems than Repubs
Repub	50.2%		38787	and 18.8 % more registered Dems than Repubs
				and 23.2% registered other,			major	gain
Assume
same percent Dem & Repub as 2000					with 2% higher Dem votes and 90% vote Kerry
Kerry	217376				222036
Bush	231683				232201
Diff(D-R)	-14307				-10165
Official 2004 Vote			Swing =	16886	to	21028
Kerry	213413
Bush	244606
Other	3501
D-R Diff	-31193
Total	461520		current best estimate = 20,000

Documentation: http://www.flcv.com/hillsboo.html

* Much of the discussion in the Duval County analysis regarding the 2000 election results also applies to Hillsboro

Pinellas County					another touch screen county
Registered Voters		Repub	Dem	Other		Total
2004		231652	223544	135793		590989
Official Turnout = 72.6%			Registration increase 2000 to 2004
2000 vote	Percent
Dem	50.3%		12668	1000% percent more new Dems than Repubs, Repub loss
Repub	46.4%		-8578	and 23% registered other, major gain for other
Assume
same percent Dem & Repub as 2000						with 2% higher Dem votes and 90% vote Kerry
Kerry	228967					232991
Bush	211214					211661
Diff(D-R)	17753					21330
Official 2004 Vote			Swing =	18013		to	21590
Kerry	225367
Bush	225627
Other	4209
D-R Diff	-260
Total	455203		current best estimate = 20,000

Documentation: http://www.flcv.com/pinellao.html

Sarasota County touch screens

Touch

screen

county

2004 official vote

2004 Registrations

Repub

104630

Repub

115317

Turnout = 73.7%

Dem

88382

Dem

74986

other

2518

other

50289

Total

195530

Total

240592

Repub

Dem

New Registrations

1122

8439

Repub county moving toward Dem & Independent; lots of new independents

8 times more new Dems than Repubs & only twice as many new Dem votes in 2004 election

http://www.flcv.com/suncoaso.html

Detailed analysis:

Registered Voters		Repub	Dem	Other	Total
2004		115317	74986	50289	240592		0.209022
Official Turnout = 81.3%			Registration increase 2000 to 2004
2000 vote	Percent
Dem	45.3%		8439	almost 8 times more new Dems than Repubs, Repub loss
Repub	51.6%		1122	and 21% registered other, major gain for other
				but big swing toward Republican in official votes
Assume
same percent Dem & Repub as 2000					with 2% higher Dem votes and 90% vote Kerry
Kerry	88575				89925
Bush	100893				101043
Diff(R-D)	12318				11119
Official 2004 Vote			Swing =	3930	to	5129
Kerry	88382
Bush	104630
Other	2518