Finally, here is a statistical comparison of the 2004 National
Exit Poll with the two prior polls. This analysis provides a
comparative reference of the essential exit poll story.
 
We know that the Democrats won the popular vote in 1996 and
2000.
Comparing the exit polls to the 2004 exit poll demographics,
it is obvious that Kerry won as well - and by a much bigger
margin then Gore. 
 
KERRY VOTERS WERE NOT MORE DISPOSED THAN BUSH VOTERS TO SPEAK
TO THE EXIT POLLSTERS; THERE WERE JUST MORE OF THEM.
USCOUNTVOTES.ORG HAS TOTALLY DEBUNKED THE EDISON-MITOFSKY
"RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY. 
 
THERE IS NO WAY THAT THE PARTY-ID SPLIT WAS 37/37/26 AS THE
LATER, CONTAMINATED EXIT POLL SUGGESTS. THAT IS A CONTRIVED
CONTORTION OF THE FACTS. THE DEMOCRATS WERE ENERGIZED. THEY
WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN REGISTERING MORE VOTERS THAN THE
REPUBLICANS, SO HOW COULD THEY HAVE LOST MARKET SHARE?
 
Focus on these important categories - all positive for Kerry:
1) The Party ID: 38% Democrat /35% Republican /27%
Independent
 
2) Gender: 54% female/46% male, a 2% increase in the female
share of the total vote- and Kerry won 54% of them.
3) Minority voters increased by 3%.
4) New voters increased by 17%.
5) Late undecided voters voted 60-40% for Kerry.
 
The 2004 National Exit poll of 13,047 respondents is
pristine, uncontaminated and confirmed by the two prior
national exit polls.
 
Minority voters:
Increased by 6% over 1996.
Increased by 4% over 2000.
 
PartyID: 
Democrats held a 38-35% advantage, down slightly from 39%-35%
for Gore and Clinton.
 
Democratic Party Loyalty:
Kerry won 90% of Democrats.
In 2000, Gore won 86% (Nader effect). 
In 1996, Clinton won 84% (Perot effect).
 
21 million new voters, a significant 17% increase:
Kerry got 59% of new and 65% of Nader 2000 voters.
In 2000, Gore won 44% of the 13% new voters. 
In 1996, Clinton won 53% of the 9% new voters.
 
Undecided voters chose the challenger Kerry, as expected:
Kerry won late deciders by 60-40%. 
In 2000, Gore won them by 48-45%.  
In 1996, Clinton split with Dole . 
 
 
 
 2004 (13,047 respondents) 2000  1996 
GENDER All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader All Clinton Dole Perot
Male  46% 47% 52% 1% 48 42 53 3 48 43 44 10
Female  54% 54% 45% 1% 52 54 43 2 52 54 38 7
 
   
RACE All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader  Clinton Dole Perot
White 77 44 55 1 81 42 54 3 83 43 46 9
Black 11 90 10 1 10 90 9 1 10 84 12 4
Hisp 9 56 41 3 7 62 35 2 5 72 21 6
Asian 2 61 39 0 2 55 41 3 1 43 48 8
Other 2 56 38 2 1 64 21 9
  
AGE All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader All Clinton Dole Perot
18-29 17% 56% 43% 1% 17 48 46 5 17 53 34 10
30-44 27% 49% 50% 1% 33 48 49 2 33 48 41 9
45-59 30% 51% 47% 1% 28 48 49 2 26 48 41 9
60+ 26% 48% 51% 1% 22 51 47 2 24 48 44 7
  
  
EDUCATION All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader  All Clinton Dole Perot
No H.S.  4% 52% 47% 1% 5 59 39 1 6 59 28 11
HighSch 22%  51% 48% 1% 21 48 49 1  24 51 35 13
College  31% 47% 51% 1%  32 45 51 3  27 48 40 10
CollGrad 26% 48% 50% 1% 24 45 51 3  26 44 46 8
PostGrad 17% 58% 40% 2% 18 52 44 3  17 52 40 5
  
  
INCOME All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader All Clinton Dole Perot
<15 9% 66% 33% 1% 7 57 37 4 11 59 28 11
15-30 15% 59% 39% 1% 16 54 41 3 23 53 36 9
30-50 22% 52% 47% 1% 24 49 48 2 27 48 40 10
50-75 23% 45% 53% 1% 25 46 51 2 21 47 45 7
75-100 13% 49% 50% 0% 13 45 52 2 9 44 48 7
100-150 11% 45% 53% 2% 15 43 54 2 9 38 54 6
250-200 4% 47% 53% 0%  
200+ 4% 41% 58% 1%  
 
PARTYID
 All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader All Clinton Dole Perot
Dem 38% 90% 9% 1% 39 86 11 2 39.4 84 10 5
Rep 35% 7% 92% 0% 35 8 91 1 34.7 13 80 6
Ind 27% 52% 45% 2% 26 45 47 6 25.9 43 35 17
   
 
IDEOLOGY All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader  All Clinton Dole Perot
Liberal  22% 86% 12% 1% 21 80 13 6  20 78 11 7
Moderate 45% 57% 41% 1% 50 52 44 2  47 57 33 9
Conservative 33% 16% 82% 1% 29 17 81 1  33 20 71 8
 
RELIGION All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader  All Clinton Dole Perot
Protestant 53% 43% 56% 1% 54 42 56 2  54 42 47 11
Catholic  27% 50% 49% 1% 27 50 47 2  29 53 37 9
Jewish  3% 77% 23% 0% 4 79 19 1 3 78 16 3
Other   7% 75% 20% 4% 6 62 28 7 6 60 23 11
None   10% 70% 29% 1% 9 61 30 7 7 59 23 13
 
 
DECIDED
 All Kerry Bush Nader All Gore Bush Nader All Clinton Dole Perot
Today  6% 53% 40% 5% 11 48 46 5 11 35 38 22
3Days  3% 53% 41% 4% 6 48 44 5 6 35 47 17
Week  2% 48% 51% 1% 13 49 45 5 13 47 36 13
Month  10% 60% 38% 1% 70 48 50 1 69 53 41 5
Before  79% 50% 50% 0%  
  
HOW VOTED:
2000 All Kerry Bush Nader 1996 All Gore Bush Nader 1992 All Clinton Dole Perot
Gore 38% 91% 8% 1% Clinton 47 82 15 2 Clinton 43 85 9 4
Bush 41% 9% 90% 0% Dole 32 7 91 1 Bush 35 13 82 4
Other 4% 65% 13% 16% Perot 6 27 64 7 Perot 12 22 44 33
None 17% 59% 39% 1% Other 2 26 52 15 Other 1 24 36 9
 None 13 44 52 3 None 9 53 33 11
 

http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polllaunch.asp

For the 2004 exit poll, the WP/NEP site:

Right click on the picture (gif) for the following http:
//media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif'

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html